Right now I’m reading a book called “The Black Swan,” which is about the inability of people to adequately assess highly improbable circumstances, luck, and unusual events that are outside of their daily experiences and biases.
The chapter I just read talked about the strange fact, which has apparently been measured in research, for experts to be worse predictors than those outside the area of expertise. The reason, according to the author, is that the experts overestimate their base of knowledge when making a prediction.
Interesting stuff.
I heard about that book. Would you recommend it?
Thank you for mentioning this book. I think I saw the author on Beck several weeks ago and I kept trying to remember who he was so I could get the book. It sounded fascinating. I think really, people always assume REALLY bad stuff won’t happen to them, so they are blindsided. Lots of ostriches. Anyway, thanks, I’m going to order it now.
There are three different ones listed on Amazon, who is the author?