Yes, you're right. My math was faulty.
Right now, most political scientists believe that 30-40 seats are in play in the House. If this passes, there could conceivably 60, or more seats in play. I just don't think she's going to find the votes.
I hope you are correct that Pelosi will not be able to secure the votes. It will largely depend on where Stupak lands, assuming he carries a few votes with him. I do know that the Catholic Church is not going to accept the Senate language, now reflected in the BO bill.