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Bishop Hill: Gonzo science and the Hockey Stick ( Prof Mann and the Hockeystick )
The Register ^ | 8th February 2010 13:25 GMT | Andrew Orlowski

Posted on 02/09/2010 10:05:17 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach

Torturing the climate numbers until they confess

Interview In 2001 the IPCC published its Third Assessment report prominently featuring a graph that became "the logo of global warming". Previous historical reconstructions didn't show our modern warm climate as particularly anomalous. This was very different, and was hailed as a "call to action". Yet Michael Mann's studies were deeply flawed. Omit one or two proxies, for example, and the scary warming 'spike' disappears. Mann's model could produce hockey stick shapes using random data, such as baseball scores, or red noise. Critics alleged that Mann's choices of data and statistical tools all cooled the Medieval Warm Period, and emphasised late 20th Century warming.

A new book recounts how the 'Hockey Stick' model was created and more intriguingly, the political and institutional defence of the indefensible. (At one stage the Hockey Stick's defenders argued that trees on different continents had "teleconnections" with each other - a claim that wouldn't be out of place in a homeopathy brochure.)

Andrew Montford, a science publisher and blogger under the name Bishop Hill, has provided the storytelling to match the detective work and persistence of another blogger, Steve McIntyre, who dismantled the Stick. Andrew talked to us about The Hockey Stick Illusion and some of the key issues it highlights.

You say the IPCC needed the Hockey Stick to be true, and that's why it got such prominence. Was this the best they could do?

If you put any of the other major temperature reconstructions in place of the Hockey Stick I think it's true to say it doesn't look so frightening. They have a Medieval Warm Period that is within a whisker of the temperatures we have now. You can make them look scarier by overlaying the instrumental record over the 20th Century part of the graph - in fact, that's part of the reason why it looks scary. I show this in the book - in Briffa series [see below].

But [these reconstructions] wouldn't convince anybody there's anything going on there at all. So yes, they needed it to convince people; and they promoted it, they had policies to sell. And when it proved to be flawed they had to stand behind it, because otherwise, they'd look stupid.

Now to the story. The preparation of the original Hockey Stick turns out to be a small part of the saga. How the issues McIntyre raised were dealt with by the scientists and the establishment is the main story.


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Conspiracy; Weather
KEYWORDS: amazongate; carbontrade; climatechange; climatechangedata; climategate; glaciergate; globalwarming; globalwarminghoax; globalwarmingscandal; globqalwarminghoax; ipcc; pachauri; pachaurigate
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To: All
Here in Los Angeles:

KFI John and Ken Show


21 posted on 02/09/2010 12:40:15 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: PhilDragoo

Right in the Ten Ring——PERFECT


22 posted on 02/09/2010 12:43:41 PM PST by BOBTHENAILER ( EPA will rule your life)
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To: socal
From the KFI Web Site:

************************************EXCERPTS****************************************

MONDAY FEBRUARY 8

Effort underway to suspend California's global-warming law 
Republican politicians and conservative activists are launching a ballot campaign to suspend
California's landmark global-warming law, in what they hope will serve as a showcase for a national backlash against climate regulations.

Supporters say they have "solid commitments" of nearly $600,000 to pay signature gatherers for a November initiative aimed at delaying curbs on the greenhouse gas emissions of power plants and factories until the state's unemployment rate drops.

GOP gubernatorial candidates and Tea Party organizers paint the 2006 law, considered a model for other state and federal efforts, as a job-killing interference in the economy. Talk radio is flailing at what John Kobylt and Ken Chiampou, drive-time hosts on
Los Angeles' KFI-AM (640), call "the global-warming final solution act" promoted by "fascist, Nazi" officials…

Audi's "Green Police" Ad Offends...Who, Exactly? 



The Super Bowl ad generating perhaps the most buzz -- and confusion -- today is Audi's "Green Police" spot, which you can watch at left.

In it, people who make environmentally-unfriendly decisions, such as opting for a plastic bag or bottle, turning up their hot tub or throwing away a battery, are arrested by the "Green Police" as a customized version of Cheap Trick's "The Dream Police" (with "Dream" changed to "Green") plays in the background.

"You picked the wrong day to mess with the ecosystem, plastic boy," one member of the Green Police tells an offender…

23 posted on 02/09/2010 12:45:22 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: BOBTHENAILER

See #21 & #23.


24 posted on 02/09/2010 12:47:28 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: GeronL

See updates,...we got stuff going out here ...


25 posted on 02/09/2010 12:48:17 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: aMorePerfectUnion

See updates.


26 posted on 02/09/2010 12:48:44 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All; GVnana
FR Thread:

ACTION ALERT - SACRAMENTO, CA. HEARING TO SUSPEND CALIFORNIA'S GLOBAL WARMING LAW

*********************Jan 10, 2010 *********************

teapartypatriots.org | 1/10/2009

Posted on Sun 10 Jan 2010 01:07:46 PM PST by GVnana

From my inbox:

"You may already be aware that California's government has put into place a plan to impose an unprecedented new regulatory regime in order to "show leadership in the fight against global warming."

AB 32, signed into law in 2006, is a coming freight train that will kill over a million jobs, add $50,000 to the cost of a new home, increase the cost of gas by 20% and increase electric bills by 30%. In effect, AB 32 will tell you what to eat, what to drive and where to live.

Our good friend Assemblyman Dan Logue has shown the kind of leadership we need from our elected leaders and has introduced a bill to suspend AB 32.

Dan's bill, AB 118, suspends the job-killing global warming law and will be heard in committee this Monday.

27 posted on 02/09/2010 12:53:16 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks; neverdem; A Navy Vet; BenLurkin

Catching up ...


28 posted on 02/09/2010 12:56:19 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All; BOBTHENAILER
Well:

AB 118 Goes Down in Global Warming Flames

29 posted on 02/09/2010 1:25:19 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach

BUMP!!


30 posted on 02/09/2010 1:31:59 PM PST by GeronL (Dignity is earned from yourself. Respect is earned from others.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach
I don't see anyone specifically labeled as a Statistical Scientist....

Most of these people seem to be in fields where they would be using statistical analysis of data in their own work, and so could be expected to have some idea of valid statistical methodology regarding analysis of sparse data.

31 posted on 02/09/2010 1:40:04 PM PST by PapaBear3625 (Public healthcare looks like it will work as well as public housing did.)
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To: Ernest_at_the_Beach; ApplegateRanch; hennie pennie; AdmSmith; Berosus; bigheadfred; ...
Thanks Ernest.

and thanks ApplegateRanch and neverdem: and thanks hennie pennie: and thanks neverdem:
32 posted on 02/09/2010 2:33:45 PM PST by SunkenCiv (Happy New Year! Freedom is Priceless.)
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To: All
Chasing stuff...NY Times has something today according to Joh and Ken...still looking..did find this:

Who’s Conflicted Now?

*************************************EXCERPT*************************************

The immediate peg for this question is the flap surrounding Rajendra K. Pachauri, the chairman of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who has been accused of reaping financial benefits from hyped warnings about climate disaster, most notably the I.P.C.C. warning that glaciers could disappear by 2035. Dr. Pachauri has denied the accusations and the I.P.C.C. has retracted the glacier warning, but the controversy doesn’t seem to be abating. The Sunday Times of London reported that, before the glacier warning was retracted, Dr. Pachauri’s research institute used “bogus claims that Himalayan glaciers were melting to win grants worth hundreds of thousands of pounds.”

I’ve previously wondered why so many on the green side of the climate debate were so willing to play the conflict-of-interest card, as Dr. Pachauri was doing quite recently himself. It struck me as a risky political strategy — because there seemed to me to be more money to be made on the green side — as well a needless diversion from the scientific debate. So while I see some justice in this argument coming back to bite Dr. Pachauri, I still wish both sides — and the journalists who cover any kind of scientific dispute — would pay less attention to money.

33 posted on 02/09/2010 3:20:22 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
This looks like it:

Skeptics Find Fault With U.N. Climate Panel

**************************EXCERPT*******************************

By ELISABETH ROSENTHAL

Published: February 8, 2010

Just over two years ago, Rajendra K. Pachauri seemed destined for a scientist’s version of sainthood: A vegetarian economist-engineer who leads the United Nationsclimate change panel, he accepted the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the panel, sharing the honor with former Vice President Al Gore.

But Dr. Pachauri and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are now under intense scrutiny, facing accusations of scientific sloppiness and potential financial conflicts of interest from climate skeptics, right-leaning politicians and even some mainstream scientists. Senator John Barrasso, a Wyoming Republican, called for Dr. Pachauri’s resignation last week.

Critics, writing in Britain’s Sunday Telegraph and elsewhere, have accused Dr. Pachauri of profiting from his work as an adviser to businesses, including Deutsche Bank and Pegasus Capital Advisors, a New York investment firm — a claim he denies.

They have also unearthed and publicized problems with the intergovernmental panel’s landmark 2007 report on climate change, which concluded that the planet was warming and that humans were likely to blame.

34 posted on 02/09/2010 3:23:40 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
John and Ken talking about a Senate Bill. #375...

Rearranging Housing Patterns....to curb Green House Gases.

Central Planning...from Sacramento....

35 posted on 02/09/2010 3:26:09 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Senate Bill 375: Redesigning Communities to Reduce Greenhouse Gases
36 posted on 02/09/2010 3:28:12 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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Excerpt from just above***********************

Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32), we must rethink how we design our communities.

37 posted on 02/09/2010 3:29:28 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
Gov. Schwarzenegger Signs Landmark Legislation to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

09/27/2006

Gov. Schwarzenegger Signs Landmark Legislation to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Video at link

Joined by national and international dignitaries who have been leaders in the fight against global climate change, Gov. Schwarzenegger signed AB 32 by Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez (D-Los Angeles), California's landmark bill that establishes a first-in-the-world comprehensive program of regulatory and market mechanisms to achieve real, quantifiable, cost-effective reductions of greenhouse gases.

 

"When I campaigned for governor three years ago, I said I wanted to make California No. 1 in the fight against global warming. This is something we owe our children and our grandchildren," said Gov. Schwarzenegger at signing ceremonies in San Francisco and Los Angeles.

38 posted on 02/09/2010 3:32:53 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: SunkenCiv; PapaBear3625; GeronL; BenLurkin

See updates....time to fight this crapola....


39 posted on 02/09/2010 3:35:00 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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To: All
They have a stack of all the fallacies in the IPCC Report...

wish they would put that up.

Talking about the Audi Superbowl ad ...

40 posted on 02/09/2010 3:38:53 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach ( Support Geert Wilders)
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