Look at the real data, such as state income tax inflow and state sales tax inflow. Both numbers continue to drop. Income is down, and purchases are down. There can be no real growth while that continues to be the case.
Ahh, yes, the "real data." Actually tax revenue is about the least-used measure of economic strength I can think of. Being that tax revenue is lagged from last year and dependent on income taxes, payroll taxes, property taxes, and other activities, which were collected off of very shrunken base, OF COURSE, tax revenues are still showing very weak.
The Bush recovery technically began in late 2001, but that didn't prevent tax revenues from reaching a 50 year low of 16.3% of GDP in 2003. 2003 was also the year employment finally turned positive. Jobs are indeed a "lagging indicator." This might be a big administration talking point, but sometimes talking points happen to be true.
Would you sourpusses lighten up? I'm not posting this to make Obama look good. I detest the man and his agenda, but I'm not going to talk myself into the idea we're in the middle of armageddon when the trends are pointing up.
I don't credit him for a bit of this, and yes, he's probably restraining growth with the pervasive uncertainty among businesses of how his health care and tax plans will burden them. But economies DO recover, it's a fact of life.
You're right. These are the indicators people should look at. The federal government statistics have become less and less reliable. The third qtr results were revised down and I expect the fourth qtr results to be revised down also. If sales are down and stores are closing there will be less inventory. This is what happens during an economic contraction.
Look at the real data, such as state income tax inflow and state sales tax inflow. Both numbers continue to drop. Income is down, and purchases are down. There can be no real growth while that continues to be the case.
While I am not onboard completely that this marks recovery, the data you are focusing on are all trailing indicators not leading indicators. I think the big question for investors, consumers, and employers is how much will bammy/nancy/harry cost me? Until that is known, either through their defeat or success, the economy will not prosper. Basically, I sense that all the economic engines will remain on idle (trading water) until they know their costs/future. This most likely translates to gridlock in congress until 2010 which the economic engines would view as a positive for growth. Any legistlative success on healthcare and capntrade would be viewed as a negative and a drag on future sales (less descretionary dollars available to compete for).
Yeah, a lot of americans are getting tired of hearing the weatherman continue to say the flooding is subsiding as they see the water continue to rise in their living room.
After a while, you decide to trust your own lying (or not) eyes.