The simple fact of the matter is that it's impossible for an economy that's shedding jobs, losing businesses, increasing office vacancies, dropping housing starts, floating foreclosures and tapped-out on credit, to grow 5.7%.
Impossible.
These figures will be adjusted downward...just like the previous ones, and any gains will be attributable to market corrections as opposed to actual growth.
You might want to work on your bona fides a bit before spewing blarney at everyone with an opinion that's different from yours.
Then please explain to me why the exact same "jobless" phenomenon happened twice before? Indeed, why in every last postwar recovery there is a period of GDP growth BEFORE job loss stops and resumes growing? The 1991 recovery went on for a year before payrolls started to gain. The 2001 recovery took until August of 2003, before payrolls started growing again.
Your logic of, "Well, if people are still losing jobs, then consumers won't buy and investors won't invest so things must still be bad" were true, then every single recession would be self-perpetuating until the economy collapsed. History shows us it just doesn't work that way.
Housing starts are what they are because of the enormous remaining oversupply of housing from the boom. You seize on one bad month and ignore the longer-term trend.
• Existing home sales fell 16.7% in December to an annual rate of 5.45 million, coming in below the consensus expected pace of 5.90 million. Existing home sales are up 15.0% versus a year ago.
• Sales were down in every major region of the country. The decrease in sales was due to decreases in both single-family homes and sales of condos/co-ops.
• The median price of an existing home increased to $178,300 in December (not seasonally adjusted) and is up 1.5% versus a year ago. This is a huge improvement since January, when prices were down 17.5% versus the prior year.
• The months’ supply of existing homes (how long it would take to sell the entire inventory, at the current sales rate) increased to 7.2 from 6.5 in November. The increase in the months’ supply was all due to the slower pace of sales. Inventories declined for single family homes, but slightly increased for condos/coops.
The drop in closings is a temporary hangover from the homebuyer tax credit, which many thought was going to expire in November. A lower number was expected and is consistent with the recent decline in pending home sales. But even with this ugly number there were some important silver linings in the report. The level of sales still remains higher than it ever was before 2001. Even better, inventories continue to decline, falling to 3.29 million, the lowest level since March 2006. Although the months’ supply of homes increased, this was all due to a slower pace of sales. Meanwhile, home prices are also showing resilience coming in at $178,300, 1.5% higher than a year ago, and the best year-ago comparison since 2006. We still believe home sales have hit bottom and will continue in an upward trend for three reasons. Home prices are much lower than they were four years ago, interest rates remain extremely low and potential homebuyers should expect modest price gains in most of the country over the next couple of years. In other news this morning, the Dallas Federal Reserve Index, a measure of manufacturing activity in Texas, increased to +8.3% in January, the eleventh consecutive increase and the highest level since mid-2007.
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2010/1/25/existing_home_sales_fell_16.7percent_in_december_to_an_annual_rate_of_5.45_million
As for my "bona fides," I'm a CFP and have been doing this for 10 years. I get my info from professionals, not gold bugs and doom-and-gloom blogs written by the same dman people who have forecasted perpetual bear markets for the last 50 years. I'll be more than happy to compare my portfolio's performance to the change in value of your safe full of gold bullion, miserable-paying money markets, or cash in your mattress one year from now.