Posted on 01/27/2010 7:11:54 AM PST by Star Traveler
Posted: Jan 27, 2010 6:37 AM
Updated: Jan 27, 2010 8:52 AM
On Friday, snow will still be falling with significant
accumulations likely along and north of the I-44 corridor.
TULSA, OK -- Most of northern Oklahoma is under a Winter Storm Warning which will be in effect from 6 a.m. Thursday through 6 a.m. Friday.
News On 6 meteorologist Alan Crone says a major storm moving east out of California is expected to collide with cold air from Canada late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
Read Alan Crone's weather discussion.
Crone says rain will begin Thursday morning and could quickly change over to freezing rain across portions of northern Oklahoma.
By midday or early afternoon, precipitation will be in the form of sleet with freezing rain near the I-40 corridor.
Thursday evening, the sleet will transition to snow across the northern third of the state, with freezing rain remaining along the I-40 corridor.
Snow will continue to fall into Friday, with significant accumulations likely along and north of the I-44 corridor.
Crone says because of the potential for freezing rain, he expects an Ice Storm Warning will be issued for portions of eastern and central Oklahoma on Thursday.
With that in mind, Crone says power outages are possible, especially across the I-40 corridor into east central Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas.
Some locations could lose electric service for several days.
I don’t know if you saw those shows on the History Channel that I was talking about, but it would basically be like going back to the 1850s or so... and machinery and electrical power and water systems and so on — would be a thing of the past. It would be just like the pioneers and getting by “long-term” like that.
Not very many people are going to make it that way, over the long-haul. Our entire population in this country would probably be cut down to a level of 30% to 40% of former population levels. It wouldn’t be a pretty picture...
Yeah, I’m hoping so... it’s only the electrical power going off that makes it more miserable. If that doesn’t happen, then heck... the storm is great. I don’t have to do anything important... LOL...
One of these times, I’m going to finally decide to get one of those generators. I was thinking about one of those that just comes on automatically and runs from natural gas. That would be the thing to get, I would think... but I just haven’t decided to do that kind of thing yet...
My Mom has her generatory hooked up the house Propane tank and just took delivery of propane this week.
All stocked up, cozy and warm.
Ahhh..., she sounds very well prepared... :-)
By Debbie Blossom
Published: January 27, 2010
Southwest Airlines is canceling dozens of flights Thursday out of the Oklahoma City and Tulsa airports because of the winter storm warning.
Some early morning flights will leave Will Rogers World Airport and Tulsa International, but all afternoon flights have been canceled, said Southwest spokeswoman Ashley Rogers.
Passengers booked on Thursday flights should check Southwest's Web site at southwest.com, where information on the winter storm is posted. Passengers also can check a flight's status at the airline's toll-free reservations line at 800-435-9792.
In Tulsa, airport officials met with airlines serving Tulsa International Airport to review flight schedules and discuss preparations being made in anticipation of the upcoming winter weather, said Tulsa airport spokeswoman Alexis Higgins.
If weather permits, several early flights to Houston, Dallas and St. Louis will depart, Higgins said.
The airport is expected to have updates on several airlines operating out of Tulsa at 5:30 p.m. today, including American Airlines, Continental, Delta, Frontier and United, she said.
A spokeswoman for American Airlines said the airline has not made a decision on Thursday's operations in Oklahoma.
Brothers hooked it up two years ago and the brother in law test it every six weeks.
By Paula Burkes
Published: January 27, 2010
With another winter storm looming, Oklahoma City consumers have been snapping up generators faster than retailers can say snow. By mid-morning today, Lowe's on Second Street in Edmond was sold out. Several stores had few left, while others are awaiting emergency shipments.
"We had four this morning, but we sold them all between 8 and 11, said Vickie Atwood, administrative manager of the Ace Hardware at 2119 NW 23. By noon, the store had only the display model, a 5,000-kilowatt generator that retails for $700.
Atwood didn't know about the inventory status at Ace stores metrowide.
"I have no clue," she said. "There's been no chance to even look up." Other customers, she said, are buying snow melt, snow shovels and more.
At Crosslands Rental at NW 29 and Santa Fe, manager Mike Staton estimates he wrote at least 20 tickets for rental generators this morning. He had only two units remaining and expected those to be gone this afternoon.
Larry Hair, general manager of Steve's Wholesale guesses they've sold several hundred units and still have several on stock at the company's six Oklahoma City stores. The widest array is at 8100 S Santa Fe, Hair said.
"Folks are pouring in from everywhere looking at them," he said. Depending on size, generators cost from $350 to $1,000, he said, with the basic 5,000-kilowatt selling for $550 to $600.
By 1 p.m., Central Power Equipment in Warr Acres had only about a dozen generators left, co-owner Chris Montgomery said. Since yesterday, he'd sold 75.
"It's been a lot of fun; we like it," Montgomery said. "The more weathermen scare people the more we sell."
O'Connor's Lawn and Garden, 2244 NW 140, has exhausted the 100 generators it had in stock yesterday, Sean O'Connor said. But more than 100 customers have prepaid for one of some 650 generators O'Connor is having trucked in from Dallas, Louisiana and Chicago.
He was expecting the truck to arrive at 3 p.m.
"We're trying to get them all here by 10 tomorrow morning," O'Connor said.
Here is the link to the 6:45 am Tulsa forecast office briefing:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/media/tsa/briefing/player.html
Enjoy - the ice index is at 3-4 so there is a high likelihood of losing power.
I'll try to come up with some kind of explanation of the scaling of the SPIA Index.
See below for the resolution...
WHEREAS, Damaging ice storms have impacted critical electric utility infrastructures in many States, causing thousands of outages and delays in restoration of vital service for consumers; and
WHEREAS, A domino effect may occur with the loss of electric utility service for telecommunications, natural gas, water and waste-water facilities due to ice storms; and
WHEREAS, Mr. Sid Sperry, representing the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives, and Mr. Steve Piltz, meteorologist-in-charge of the National Weather Service office in Tulsa, Oklahoma, have monitored the effects and impacts of ice storms for more than ten years; and
WHEREAS, These gentlemen formed a research alliance with the Oklahoma Climatological Survey in Norman, Oklahoma, to prepare a guide using the various weather parameters involved in the formation of ice storms and have called it the “Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index” or “SPIA Index;” and
WHEREAS, Unlike other post-event, weather-related disaster indices, such as the Enhanced Fujita Scale for tornados, the SPIA Index can accurately predict – days in advance – the location, timing and severity of ice storm impacts on aerial utility conductors and telecommunications cables; and
WHEREAS, After extensive testing of the SPIA Index, it was used by the National Weather Service office in Tulsa, Oklahoma, to give advance warnings of up to seventy-two and ninety-six hours and to accurately predict footprint areas for the January 26-29, 2009, ice storm that heavily impacted parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas; and
WHEREAS, Other National Weather Service offices across the United States have existing digital forecasting and extended forecast modeling software to enable implementation of the SPIA Index into their forecasting databases and could thus provide accurate predictions of oncoming ice storms and allow utility companies to pre-position both disaster-response manpower and repair equipment to more quickly restore damaged infrastructure caused by ice storms; now, therefore be it
RESOLVED, That the Board of Directors of the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners, convened at its 2009 Summer Committee Meetings in Seattle, Washington, supports the consideration of adoption and implementation of the “Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index,” or “SPIA Index” by all offices of the National Weather Service across the United States that could possibly be affected by devastating ice storms, and encourages the use of the SPIA Index by disaster preparedness and emergency response agencies to better prepare for future ice storms.
Sponsored by the Committee on Critical Infrastructure
Adopted by the NARUC Board of Directors, July 22, 2009
[ from http://www.naruc.org/Resolutions/Resolution%20on%20SPIA%20Index.pdf ]
Two Oklahomans design a system to categorize ice storms.
Steve Piltz of the National Weather Service helped to develop
an ice storm category system. STEPHEN PINGRY/Tulsa World
By ALTHEA PETERSON World Staff Writer
Published: 12/29/2008 2:20 AM
Last Modified: 12/29/2008 4:15 AM
The same way that meteorologists categorize tornadoes or hurricanes may soon apply to ice storms, thanks to the work of Oklahoma leaders in meteorology and utilities.
When Sid Sperry of the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives wanted a better way to predict potential ice storm damage, Steve Piltz of the National Weather Service in Tulsa helped create a system that displays basic weather elements that combine to create ideal ice storm conditions. This system, named the Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index or SPIA Index, may change the way ice storms are forecast.
Piltz said it is one of the most accurate systems when compared with forecasts for other weather elements, because it is based on the elements and previous ice storms in Oklahoma.
"From day one, it's been about predicting the potential impact," Piltz said. "With this system you can overlay your wind with your temperatures and precipitation data."
By combining those three elements, Sperry said, the SPIA Index categorizes the potential for certain utility- and travel-related conditions, much in the way the Fujita scale categorizes potential damage from a tornado.
"This allows us to be better prepared with a three- to four-day window," he said. "It allows a utility company to contact vendors days in advance. It allows more expedient access to get systems back online."
The system started in January 2006 but was undergoing tests until this year. Now it has generated interest not only from local emergency management, but also the federal Department of Homeland Security and the state's departments of emergency management and transportation, Sperry said.
Someday, Piltz said, ice storms such as last December's in Tulsa may be referred to as a Category 5 under the SPIA Index, which will assist utilities, transportation and other disaster relief personnel.
"If we can give them this heads-up, maybe they can get the resources a few days before everyone wants them," he said.
However, even the most prepared personnel may not prevent the devastating effects of some storms, he said.
"When catastrophic damage happens, it takes time to recover," he said. "However, there are steps that can be taken to mitigate some of the damage."
Today is the first official day of winter
By Bryan Painter
Published: December 21, 2009
Is it time to sweat another winter?
Today is the official first day of winter, and although we’ve already had some hard freezes, it’s the severe ice storms that have made many Oklahomans sweat the last several winters.
Of 62 declared disasters in Oklahoma since 1955, eight were for "ice storms” or "severe winter storms.” Each has come since December 2000, according to the state Department of Emergency Management.
Although they work in two different professions, Sid Sperry, director of public relations, communications and research at the Oklahoma Association of Electric Cooperatives in Oklahoma City, and Steve Piltz, meteorologist in charge at the Tulsa National Weather Service forecast office, have been among those bearing beads of perspiration as precipitation turned to ice that eventually led to power outages and property damage.
So they decided to wipe their collective brow and designed the "Sperry-Piltz Ice Accumulation Index” with assistance from the Oklahoma Climatological Survey.
The purpose of the index is to measure an oncoming ice storm’s severity, Sperry said.
This may be helpful for electric and communication utilities with overhead lines and equipment, but also for other disaster preparedness agencies, including Oklahoma Emergency Management.
Using this index, damage potential is categorized in five levels and is gauged by ice accumulation, wind speed and temperatures. The index is "forward looking,” Sperry said. A key component is information from the Oklahoma Mesonet.
The Mesonet is an important part of adjusting those forecasts, pinpointing where the ice is going to strike, and helping to determine where ice is occurring as opposed to nonfrozen precipitation.
"This means it is predicting the projected damage path and intensity of the storm, and the level of anticipated damage, based on early forecast data, three to four days ahead of the storm from the National Weather Service’s digital forecasting technology,” Sperry said. "This damage intensity level is based on what kind of damage could be possible to overhead utility systems or roadways days in advance.”
Utility and communication systems may be able to handle small to moderate ice accumulations — levels 1 and 2. But, lines, poles and other structures are more likely to break when wind speeds increase and when ice accumulations increase. These can be levels 3, 4 and 5.
"Our electric cooperative managers in eastern Oklahoma that have used the SPIA Index over the last three years have found it to be very accurate and extremely helpful in their advance planning for ice storms,” Sperry said.
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