Swing counties to watch in the Coakley/Brown returns Tuesday night

CNN Election 2002 ^ | 1/16/2010 | Myself

[GOP_Resurrected]

To get a sense of how Scott is performing, it's useful to know the margins in the last successful Republican race in Massachusetts. In this case, Romney in 2002, with his 50%-45% statewide win over Shannon O'Brien.

A little spreadsheet manipulation gives us a good clue to the swing counties. These are counties very close to the statewide average in terms of Romney's performance, between 46% and 54%. It makes sense that if these counties start coming in for Scott at these levels or better, we might be in for some wonderful news Tuesday night.

Blandford 54%

Gosnold 54%

Needham 54%

Norwood 54%

Russell 54%

Wayland 54%

Westfield 54%

Athol 53%

Belmont 53%

Chester 53%

Dedham 53%

Dighton 53%

Eastham 53%

Natick 53%

Peabody 53%

Swampscott 53%

Warren 53%

Weymouth 53%

Acton 52%

Clinton 52%

Melrose 52%

Newburyport 52%

Orange 52%

Southbridge 52%

Stoughton 52%

Wales 52%

Falmouth 51%

Framingham 51%

Freetown 51%

Granby 51%

Harvard 51%

Monson 51%

Petersham 51%

Templeton 51%

Waltham 51%

Wareham 51%

Barre 50%

Nantucket 50%

Rockport 50%

Winthrop 50%

Edgartown 49%

Fitchburg 49%

Gloucester 49%

Hardwick 49%

Hull 49%

Ludlow 49%

Maynard 49%

Milton 49%

Nahant 49%

Palmer 49%

Concord 48%

Gardner 48%

Millville 48%

Southampton 48%

Whitman 48%

Brockton 47%

Lowell 47%

Quincy 47%

Revere 47%

Sharon 47%

South Hadley 47%

Belchertown 46%

Chesterfield 46%

Huntington 46%

Rowe 46%

Swansea 46%

Ware 46%

[GOP_Resurrected]

Hope everyone finds it useful.

[Vermont Lt]

Interesting. But those are towns/cities. Not counties.

[GOP_Resurrected]

Apologies. I’m not a Mass native, and CNN had them labeled “Counties.”

[InterceptPoint]

Tuesday night is Popcorn Night. Should be great.

[Vermont Lt]

No problem. I just cringe at the thought of THAT MANY county jobs (although we got rid of most of them a few years ago)

[danamco]

Send the guy some more dough,

and do it all for Mary Joe

[downwdims]

This was posted on NR’s Bay State Blog.

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=6218