When/if we run out of oil, it would absolutely occur over a prolonged period of declining output. This would lesson almost all of the shocks he's sounding the alarms about as people and economies would have time to adjust to other fuel options.
That sounds more reassuring than it really is. The key is the ratio of declining output to increasing demand, especially in the absence of equivalent quantities of alternative fuels suitable for all our various needs: transportation, heating/cooling, etc.
If the increase in the production and adaptation of equivalent alternative fuels offsets the decrease in oil output, fine. Then it really doesn't matter how long it takes oil producers to suck out the last drop.
Yes, not only that...
Oil supply is measured in “economically recoverable” oil. As the price of oil goes up, it becomes profitable to go after oil which is not currently profitable to go after. As that happens, the amount of economically recoverable oil increases exponentially. Let alone the fact that we only know of the “economically unrecoverable” we chanced apon, since who looks for economically unrecoverable oil?
I agree with you. The guy who wrote this projection of the future is not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
I disagree -it’s not saying Oil will run out overnight - it’s merely stating what will hapen to regions / local economies and the political impact it will have.