I disagree with your assesment. Perhaps some research into when the biggest endorsements rolled it... pre or post marriage would answer the question. There is no doubt that marriage increased his endorsement value, by how much will be one of the things looked at by the lawyers and the bean counters.
The real bottom line for Tiger Woods, Inc. is that in order to prevent his bimbos from cashing in is that he is going to have to cash them out. He will be in a similar situation with his wife. Silence is expensive and she knows more about his dirty laundry than anyone else.
Such flagrant breech of contract tends to be expensive and punitive damages are supposed to hurt or they aren't really punitive.
I can guarantee you from experience that Mrs. Woods is in the position of executive assistant on the domestic front. Mr. Woods has neither the time nor inclination to tend to the minutia of supervising domestic staff, particularly if he is to focus on his golf game.
Elin herself, from all accounts is very child centric and family oriented and I have not seen any accounts in the press that indicate that they have a nanny or au pair nor a large domestic staff, so she may very well be handling the bulk of the childcare herself, particularly if she breastfeeds.
If they have much domestic staff, it's quite a miracle that they haven't been bought off by the tabbies to tell tales.
I do know that Nike and Buick were long before his marriage. I haven’t checked the other major ones. I think Gatorade was more recent. Some brands might be more sensitive to marriage vs bachelor; I really don’t think, for example, Gatorade is one of those. One might argue that Gillette is.
I agree with you that I expect Tiger and Elin to reach some sort of negotiated settlement.
If Tiger has competent estate and tax lawyers, then I don’t expect that she will be able to successfully claim California residence and get California law to govern the divorce and void the pre-nup and get 50%.
On the other hand, I don’t think Tiger will try to stick her with the strict terms of the pre-nup, in part for the reason you cite regarding dirty laundry, and perhps just from a sense of guilt.
But she ain’t gonna end up with half, or anything close to half.