Posted on 12/03/2009 11:54:11 AM PST by Star Traveler
By Neil Hughes
Published: December 3, 2009 - 09:20 AM EST
Apple is predicted to continue its gains on the rest of the PC market in 2010, with Mac sales projected to grow by 26 percent while the industry is forecast to see a 16 percent year-over-year increase.
If the predictions of Robert Cihra, analyst with Caris & Company, prove true, it would give Apple a total 4 percent market share for the 2010 calendar year. Cihra goes into great detail on his analysis in a note issued to investors Thursday morning. Due to Apple controlling its own product cycles, as well as pricing, he believes Mac units will grow at a rate of 1.6 times faster than the entire PC market. On average, the Mac has outpaced the PC market as a whole by 1.8 times over the last 12 quarters.
With just a 4 percent projected total market share in 2010, the Mac still has "considerable headroom" for gains, Cihra said. He believes the company is still the single-best stock investors can buy in the PC market.
"As the most (in fact only) innovative, highest-value (hardware+software) and profitable PC vendor, we estimate Apple having earned a Mac [average selling price] of $1,289 in CY09, down 10% [year over year] but still representing a premium of 1.8x vs. its Wintel peers," the report said. "Even more meaningful, we estimate Apple Macs generating a gross profit-per-unit of nearly $340, which is 2-3x our estimate for its peers, keeping us focused on AAPL as the single best PC market investment."
Caris & Company reiterated its recommendation to buy AAPL stock, and has maintained a price target of $260.
The report also noted a "brutal" erosion of the PC average selling price in 2009, dropping an estimated 16 percent year over year. Portable machines alone were said to have dropped more than 20 percent in price, driven by the popularity of low-cost netbooks.
In this respect, major PC manufacturers like HP are finally catching up with a trend originally achieved by Apple way back in the second quarter of 2007: notebook prices are dropping below desktop prices, as portable machines have become the new "mainstream" PC. Cihra said the first quarter of 2009 was the first time that HP's notebook average selling price dropped below that of its desktops, nearly two years after they had flipped for Apple.
Cihra expects the overall PC market to increase between 15 and 20 percent in 2010, with his current forecast at 16 percent. The report said that signs of turnaround in the PC market are showing, though the economy remains the wildcard in forecasting PC sales for next year.
In September, Apple again significantly outpaced the rest of the PC market, growing 16.4 percent globally year over year, while the market as a whole grew 2.3 percent. Due to Apple's premium-priced products, the company has a worldwide revenue share of about 10 percent, while its market share hovers just north of 4 percent.
Apple has been projected to sell 2.9 million Macs for the final, fourth quarter of 2009. The company's September 2009 quarter proved to be its best ever, with sales of 3 million Macs helping the company's profits rise more than 46 percent.
I understood what you were talking about anyway, but I do hope you understand what I’m talking about when I say that Apple is a “hardware” company (i.e., that’s their “business model”) and thus it makes absolutely no sense for Apple to “support” another company’s hardware... LOL...
Yes, I understand their business model. I think it’s a poor model. They would do better selling just the software.
But with his history of pancreatic cancer and recent liver transplant, that isn’t probably not a long time.
Well, Jobs was a "two time dead person"... and yet he's still here... :-)
That pancreatic cancer was cured a number of years ago. He had a rare form of it which happened to be highly treatable and he was cured.
Then he had a needed liver transplant, dodging the bullet again.
Both were taken care of and successful.
What can I say... "Jobs is magic..." :-)
Yes, I understand their business model. I think it’s a poor model. They would do better selling just the software.
Well, I'm glad you do understand that business model. That's good because there are a lot of people who don't understand it and they need to -- in order to understand Apple.
BUT, having said that -- with Apple being as wildly successful as it has been over the last decade and more, and with billions in the bank and no debt -- I don't think Apple is going to listen to "another business model"... LOL...
Is that a new piece of software... ? LOL...
I know you are correct about that. My point was that they could use the software as a lead into their hardware. And yes, I agree, Apple will never take advantage of this opportunity, and will thus be relegated to a minor share of the market, forever and ever and ever...
That underdog image is what seems to float their boat.
... and will thus be relegated to a minor share of the market, forever and ever and ever...
Well..., that's an interesting thing to say to a company that has been gaining market share steadily for the last decade and is wildly successful and has billions of dollars in the bank and has no debt... LOL...
If windows dies tomorrow, the Open source hardware will still beat apple with one or many of the Linux variants. And if the world re-centers on a Linux variant, so will the application software. As much as I love my mac, I work on a cr^ppy ol' PC.
At this rate, Apple will have a majority of the market in, what, 2109?
Well, I think they had a doubling in a decade. And they are holding with that growth... So, if you figured a doubling in a decade, you would come up with a majority of the market in just a big over two decades...
And that's a much better position to be in, in that you've got the room to grow and the company has been demonstrating that kind of continued growth for over the last decade.
That's much better than the Windows operating system, being "maxed out" and having nowhere to go but down, down and down... :-)
"Slow and steady as she goes..."
If windows dies tomorrow, the Open source hardware will still beat apple with one or many of the Linux variants.
You don't know the average consumer then... :-)
I do know people hate being tied to a sole source supplier. Which is a big reason people hate Microsoft.
PC’s have 92% of the market. Macs have 5%. So if these projections pan out then mac will be no higher than 7%. Not exactly as great as they make it sound.
I do know people hate being tied to a sole source supplier. Which is a big reason people hate Microsoft.
Well consumers buy Ford and only Ford makes Ford... :-)
The only problem there is that other car makers make their own cars, too... ooops...
I suppose if someone didn't like Apple Hardware, they could go to Dell, or HP and buy theirs. The only problem with that is that Dell doesn't make HP and HP doesn't make Dell... LOL...
The bottom line is that people are buying Apple Macintosh because they like Apple Macintosh and it works well for them. If they liked HP, they would go there. If they liked Dell, they would go there. So, it's no big deal.
As long as Apple produces the quality computers and other products they make and continues to be wildly successful, with billions of dollars in the bank and no debt -- I don't see what the problem is.
I mean, if someone doesn't want to buy Apple, who is making them? :-)
The fact is, people are buying Apple not because anyone is making them, but because they've found a good product with excellent customer service (the best in the business for that industry) having quality hardware and software.
As long as Apple is bringing in more and more customers all the time, I say that's great...
Actually the numbers here in the United States is more like 9-10% and growing... they’ve been growing for the last decade and have not slowed down. More than half the sales of Macintosh in the Apple Stores are to previous PC owners switching over to the Mac... so that’s very good news for Apple... :-)
That misses the point. You seem like some that likes to color outside the lines.
That misses the point. You seem like some that likes to color outside the lines.
Nope, that doesn't miss the point at all. The desktop computer market and/or laptop market consists of many vendors and Apple is just one of them. Apple has their business model (as mentioned already) and others have theirs.
So, a consumer can pick whatever company they like and/or want -- from the wider market for computers (and the consumers that want those machines) or according to a "business model" that a consumer prefers (but it doesn't appear that consumer care about the type of "business model" but rather, is happy with something that works and works very well).
And so, the fact of the matter is that Apple's business model is gaining consumers and expanding their market share and they show no signs of slowing down from the last decade of their expansion.
Why would Apple want to change a good thing?
*That’s much better than the Windows operating system, being “maxed out” and having nowhere to go but down, down and down... :-)
“Slow and steady as she goes...”*
There’s no real reason to think that the trends will continue. Either way, there is a point above which Apple will not be able to increase market share and that is when they hit the wall that is large business. No way will any organization of any size want to fork over huge amounts of money to swap hardware and operating systems—the only large organizations I can think of that embrace Apple are schools, which makes little sense since they typically are cash-strapped to begin with. I’ll leave it to your imagination as to why any school would choose to run Macs rather than a vastly cheaper OS.
Apple fills their niche well, but I sincerely doubt they will ever get within sniffing distance of 50% of the market.
Apple fills their niche well, but I sincerely doubt they will ever get within sniffing distance of 50% of the market.
Oh..., I've heard those kinds of comments for years now... LOL And yet, Apple keeps growing, keeps making more money, keeps on being successful and keeps grabbing more of that marketshare...
I think it's more like there are some people who don't like Apple's success... not too much more to that story, I don't think... :-)
In many cases, their business expansion, (into the business market that is,) is based on being able to load windows on their hardware platform, and because they produce an excellent product. But we are still stuck with windows, very frustrating.
As hardware developers, I am not sure how they would be hurt by expanding the use of their operating system across platforms. They could always keep the general PC version one or more versions back, just an idea.
And yes, I know that is not thier business model.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.