The Missing Hotspot ---The Hotspot is crucial to the climate debate.
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If greenhouses gases are warming the planet that warming will happen first in the cold blob of air 8-12 km above the tropics. Its freezing cold up there, but it ought to be slightly less freezing cold thanks to greenhouse gases. All 20-odd climate models predict warming there firstits the fingerprint of greenhouse gas warming, as opposed to warming by some other cause, like solar magnetic effects, volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance, or ozone depletion etc etc.
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See the Graphs at JoNova website
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Look at A above, the greenhouse gas fingerprint is markedly different from the rest and dominates the overall predicted pattern in graph F. The big problem for the believers of AGW is that years of radiosonde measurements cant find any warming, as shown in part E of Figure 5.7 in section 5.5 on page 116 of the US CCSP 2006 report
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Perhaps were looking in the wrong spot and the hot-spot is lurking somewhere else?
If we are, that gets us right back to square one. The theory of greenhouse gas warming depends on finding a hotter spot of air above the equator if that hot spot is somewhere else, the greenhouse theory itself collapses in a heap. It means either the greenhouse effect is not causing much of the recent warming, or the greenhouse theory is just plain wrong. AGW supporters are not asking this question because they cant win either way.
Possibly we just cant measure the air temperatures accurately enough to find the hot-spot?
Maybe, but weve been recording temperatures up there repeatedly for decades, and its not that the hot-spot is weakits absent. There is no sign at all.
AGW says: Santer and Sherwood have found the missing hot spot.
Skeptics say: Santer uses statistics to show that the hot spot might be hidden under the noise. He hasnt found any sign of warmingjust the sign of fog in the results. Sherwood ignores the thermometers altogether and uses wind gauges to tell us the temperature. (Whod a thought?!)
On my blog theres more answers to the claims that the hot spot is not missing here.
See all posts tagged Missing Hot Spot
The bottom line is that either the thermometers are wrong or the theory is.
On David Evans site theres a full definitive explanation of the missing hot spot and all the common attempts to rebut it on one pdf here (25 pages). If you cant open it in Mozilla try Explorer.
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The Missing Hotspot ...more easily available:
*****************************EXCERPT*********************************
The Hotspot is crucial to the climate debate.
If greenhouses gases are warming the planet that warming will happen first in the cold blob of air 8-12 km above the tropics. Its freezing cold up there, but it ought to be slightly less freezing cold thanks to greenhouse gases. All 20-odd climate models predict warming there firstits the fingerprint of greenhouse gas warming, as opposed to warming by some other cause, like solar magnetic effects, volcanic eruptions, solar irradiance, or ozone depletion etc etc.
Look at A above, the greenhouse gas fingerprint is markedly different from the rest and dominates the overall predicted pattern in graph F. The big problem for the believers of AGW is that years of radiosonde measurements cant find any warming, as shown in part E of Figure 5.7 in section 5.5 on page 116 of the US CCSP 2006 report
SOURCES:
(A) Predicted changes 1958-1999. Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1, 2006, CCSP, Chapter 1, p 25, based on Santer et al. 2000;
(B) Hadley Radiosonde record: Synthesis and Assessment Report 1.1, 2006, CCSP,, Chapter 5, p116, recorded change/decade, Hadley Centre weather balloons 1979-1999, p. 116 , fig. 5.7E, from Thorne et al., 2005.
Perhaps were looking in the wrong spot and the hot-spot is lurking somewhere else?
If we are, that gets us right back to square one. The theory of greenhouse gas warming depends on finding a hotter spot of air above the equator if that hot spot is somewhere else, the greenhouse theory itself collapses in a heap. It means either the greenhouse effect is not causing much of the recent warming, or the greenhouse theory is just plain wrong. AGW supporters are not asking this question because they cant win either way.
Possibly we just cant measure the air temperatures accurately enough to find the hot-spot?
Maybe, but weve been recording temperatures up there repeatedly for decades, and its not that the hot-spot is weakits absent. There is no sign at all.
AGW says: Santer and Sherwood have found the missing hot spot.
Skeptics say: Santer uses statistics to show that the hot spot might be hidden under the noise. He hasnt found any sign of warmingjust the sign of fog in the results. Sherwood ignores the thermometers altogether and uses wind gauges to tell us the temperature. (Whod a thought?!)
On my blog theres more answers to the claims that the hot spot is not missing here.
See all posts tagged Missing Hot Spot
The bottom line is that either the thermometers are wrong or the theory is.
On David Evans site theres a full definitive explanation of the missing hot spot and all the common attempts to rebut it on one pdf here (25 pages). If you cant open it in Mozilla try Explorer.