Posted on 09/20/2009 9:06:32 PM PDT by mamelukesabre
I welcome any and all critiques/criticisms of my math and logic. But please try to use math to express disagreement. I realize I've grossly oversimplified. But I still think my numbers are reasonable. I also realize this thread can be construed as racism. My argument to that is that there is no racism in mathematics.
Theres plenty of intermarriage going on and you can’t segregate European whites from non European whites. High birth rates among immigrants dissipates over time. And so on. You can not extrapolate current immigration rates; ie during the 1930’s there was net emmigration from here. Muslims don’t assimilate well and Blacks do so poorly, but most others do better. Your nos. are based on too many parameters which are not static. And mostly, the problem /issue is class. Prosperity will take care of most problems, but socialsim/ stagnation will probably cause societal breakup over time, IMO.
A WOW bump for later!
>>>We are living in our “last HOORAH” as free americans. Enjoy it. Make the most of it. It will be over very soon.<<<
I appreciate the effort - Mark Steyn has done similar calculations in his books and articles - but you’re making some basic errors of a non-mathematical nature, too.
You’re assuming that all trends continue into the future unchanged. Human behavior, however, isn’t chemistry or geology. In fact, once societies reach a certain level of prosperity, the birth rate declines, no matter what the cultural outlook might be. Victorian England was experiencing a declining birthrate without contraception; many developed countries are experiencing a sharp decline in the birth rate; the West and East Asia are just in the front of the trend. The exception is Islam, which makes the case, as those places tend to be some of the least prosperous places on Earth.
You’re also making the assumption that there is a connection between the European heritage of Americans and the civic beliefs of liberty and freedom. We’re not Greeks or Romans, but we’ve managed to adapt many of their beliefs to our own political processes. Ethnicity isn’t connected to belief. As I look at the history of concepts like individual liberty and rule of law, it looks like those ideas are passed on from culture to culture, often with the originating culture dying off or no longer expressing those virtues. It wouldn’t surprise me to see President Chen and Vice-President Gonzalez in the 22nd century waxing poetic about liberty and freedom.
Lastly, your premise seems to be based on a zero-sum game - that is, ethnicity and race are static. Not true. People have been interbreeding since the dawn of man, producing new and interesting shades and hues of humanity. I’m living here in the Alaska Interior, among Native American people, and you’d be amazed at the number of people who consider themselves Native with German, Irish, and Scandinavian surnames, and kids who pop out with red, blonde, and brown hair along with all sorts of skin shades. An influx of people from elsewhere means lots and lots of people sharing genes and cultures, and that means that the strength of the ideas we have is what is important, not whether the person has European heritage.
My wife is African. For real. Born and raised there. Our son is pure American - he knows why we have guns (to fight tyranny), he loves this country and American values, and he has already told me in his beautiful sixth-grade manner that he’d fight for his country. My wife now likes to listen to Rush, expresses conservative views, and has become a keen proponent of American exceptionalism. All is not lost. Free men and women are everywhere. Never give up hope.
Non-european whites are included in the imaginary group “non-euros”. I think since they are such a small minority that this simplification shouldn’t be a problem.
I fail to see how intermarriage will significantly shift the demographic one way or the other. If anything, the effect of intermarriage will *SLIGHTLY* favor the imaginary group “non-euros”.
I agree with your comment about prosperity.
Thanks for your input.
Reminds me of a great story I remember from the 1992 Wintr Olympics. Japan's Midori Ito was the heavy favorite to win the gold medal in women's figure skating, and before the finals one of the announcers on the television network covering the event wondered aloud if America's domination of this event was coming to an end.
The other announcer -- only half-joking -- said he didn't think so, because he said "OUR Japanese will always beat THEIR Japanese."
Japanese-American skater Kristi Yamaguchi (born in California) won the gold medal over Ito that year.
She's now married to Bret Hedican, a retired (Caucasian) professional hockey player. They've got two daughters who are as American as anyone here in this great country. Ethnicity has nothing to do with political philosophy.
Ethnicity has nothing to do with political philosophy.
~~~~~~~~~~~
The numbers say otherwise. It is a fact in america that a higher percentage of euro-americans are conservative. One might be able to make an argument that this is due to reasons other than race...such as age for instance. That there are more old white people therefore the white people have a stronger showing on the conservative side. But you cannot tell me there is no ethnic trend. You would be lying to yourself if you did.
I have found that Asians, for example, are among the most rabid conservatives on economic matters. And you won't find people more adamantly opposed to the ongoing homosexualization of America than blacks and Hispanics (come to think of it -- why is it that every homosexual activist in the U.S. these days is a euro-American?).
yes, asian-americans are fiercely conservative. This is why I went to the trouble of showing how rapidly the chinese are going extinct.
Good point about homosexuality.
But this is a moot point, imo. I say that because such a small minority of homos exist in america. And, as you pointed out, since most of them are euros anyway, and euros are going extinct, and homos reproduce even slower than heteros, homos aren’t even worth discussing in this calculation.
Right?
I remember they showed a clip of this campaign appearance on the news. If you can find a copy of it, you might notice something odd about it.
All of the euro-Americans in the longshoremen's union took the hour off to hear Al Gore speak.
The mechanical humming sound and occasional "beep-beep-beep" sound you hear in the background is my Latino friend driving his forklift around the warehouse as he worked through the entire appearance. He's more conservative than most of the "euro-Americans" I know.
No offense, but I fail to see how personal anecdotes on the micro scale have any bearing at all on demographics on the macro scale. I don’t see how or why or by what method such anecdotes should/could have any consideration in calcs such as I presented.
"The nation will be more racially and ethnically diverse, as well as much older, by midcentury, according to projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Minorities, now roughly one-third of the U.S. population, are expected to become the majority in 2042, with the nation projected to be 54 percent minority in 2050. By 2023, minorities will comprise more than half of all children.
By 2050, the minority population — everyone except for non-Hispanic, single-race whites — is projected to be 235.7 million out of a total U.S. population of 439 million. The nation is projected to reach the 400 million population milestone in 2039.
The non-Hispanic, single-race white population is projected to be only slightly larger in 2050 (203.3 million) than in 2008 (199.8 million). In fact, this group is projected to lose population in the 2030s and 2040s and comprise 46 percent of the total population in 2050, down from 66 percent in 2008.
Meanwhile, the Hispanic population is projected to nearly triple, from 46.7 million to 132.8 million during the 2008-2050 period. Its share of the nation’s total population is projected to double, from 15 percent to 30 percent. Thus, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic.
The black population is projected to increase from 41.1 million, or 14 percent of the population in 2008, to 65.7 million, or 15 percent in 2050.
The Asian population is projected to climb from 15.5 million to 40.6 million. Its share of the nation’s population is expected to rise from 5.1 percent to 9.2 percent.
87 percent of the 1.2 million legal immigrants entering annually are minorities as defined by the U.S. Government and almost all of the illegal aliens are minorities. By 2023 half of the children 18 and under in the U.S. will be classified as minorities and by 2042, half of the residents of this country will be minorities. Generally, immigrants and minorities vote predominantly for the Democrat Party. Hence, Democrats view immigration as a never-ending source of voters that will make them the permanent majority party.
Well reproduction rates are sad enough, but you combine them with NO BORDER CONTROL, it triples the already bad news.
Level the Playing Field. And put more cheerleaders on it while you're at it.
With the few videos I’ve seen on Demographics, you’re probably not too far off.
If our LEADERS HAD ANY BALLS, they would treat this as a national security issue. Close the borders, deport illegals, ban abortion and the pill, and give tax incentives for more babies. ;)
The Chinese have just recently loosened the one child policy.
They allowed two children for certain non-Han Chinese and some very poor farmers.
The Chinese leadership is not uber-retarded.
They will continue to loosen the 1 child policy as time goes on.
They are not going to stand by as their population implodes.
Another thing a normal population is about 52-53% female.
The sex selection problem should be its own solution.
As the percentage of females dwindle women will become more valuable.
You consider yourself a “Euro American?” Maybe that’s your problem. I don’t, and I’m offended you would call people that. Maybe you should go back to Europe.
Not stand by as their population implodes? Even if they acted with great panic tomorrow, they are way too late.
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