OLED. The future:
You get the idea.
Posted on 08/28/2009 2:02:29 AM PDT by Las Vegas Dave
While HDTVs have been popular Black Friday items in the past few years, GottaDeal.com expects that this holiday season will be the a significant one for HDTV purchases by the average consumer. Prices have dropped this year more than any previous year, and with the digital TV transition now complete, a large part of the general public is looking to get a new HDTV, either as a primary or secondary television, and this Black Friday should provide an large number of deals. With HDTVs, quality can vary greatly from the cheaper to the more expensive units. In many cases, the lowest-priced models on Black Friday are stripped-down models made exclusively for that retailer's sale. In many cases they lack features and the quality components used to manufacture higher priced models. That doesn't necessarily mean that these deals aren't great - it's just a case of "buyer beware" as you should not expect $2,000 performance from a $500 HDTV.
The two primary types of flat panel HDTVs in the Black Friday ads will be LCD and Plasma. Plasma HDTVs tend to be cheaper going by cost per inch, but that is not always the case as there are some very high-end, highly rated plasma models out there. The maximum resolution of an HDTV is also something that you'll see in the ads. Most HDTVs will either be 1080p or 720p. These numbers represent the maximum lines of horizontal resolution that the TV can display at once. 1080p is the native resolution for things like Blu-ray, some video games and other sources, and being higher resolution means that these models will cost more.
LCD HDTVs can come with different refresh rates. As of a couple years ago, most models were 60Hz. Newer models are 120Hz or higher. Most consumers won't notice the difference between the different rates, although on some source materials such as movies shot on film, it can be somewhat noticeable. Newer technology such as LED-backlit HDTVs has hit the market, however it will likely be another year or two before these models get the full Black Friday discount treatment from retailers.
On to price predictions. Consumers should fully expect to see 42" plasma and HDTVs in the $399 to $499 range this year. During the last few months on GottaDeal.com, there have been posted deals for 42" HDTVs for under $600 in a few cases, so it's completely realistic to expect at least one retailer to have a deal under $400 on a lower-quality model. These cheaper HDTVs will likely be 720p and will lack features found in more expensive models. Prices on 50" plasma and LCD HDTVs should also fall this Black Friday, perhaps to somewhere around $599 to $699
That's why I said a plasma should be considered at a much lower cost.
Yes, I do mean LED Backlight. They are more expensive right now, but I think it is because they are new and there are still a LOT of the standard LCD and Plasma sets in warehouses and still being produced. But I expect the price to drop dramatically by next Christmas (2010).
Yes, most HDTV’s look great to most people. That same concept is why I had a hard time, back in the late 70’s getting people to buy laserdisc players. VHS was fine.
But times and sensibilities change. I also have little doubt that, as with electronic vs mechanical tuners on tv’s, the LED backlight sets will be cheaper to actually produce and ship. And there is the power consumption advantage.
I will not be replacing my projector until at least next spring, so I am excited about LED “looking forward”. I think the plasma and LCD will be dropping in price significantly this Christmas, but I also think the LED sets will drop dramatically as the economy continues to decline and the low cost of production causes producers to, for the sake of competition, cut prices on LED sets to the bone by next spring.
We’ll see. I used to sell simple CD players for $1,300, and I watched people pay more for tv’s with remote and electronic tuners than for the tv’s with the mechanical tuners even thought the mechanical tuners were more expensive to produce. I think the LED backlight will completely replace the standard plasma and LCD sets in a year or so.
I also strongly thing Oled or something very similar will become the standard shortly after that. There are reliability problems in manufacturing, but hey, that is why pocket calculators used to be so expensive - so few of the final chips on which they were based actually survived the manufacturing process. But once that nut was cracked, well, the rest is history. I expect the same with OLED. And the power consumption, weight, and cost of production will drop again.
But this is all looking forward 2 to 5 years.
It was not all that long ago that Definitive Audio in Bellevue, WA had a Pioneer 42” Plasma set available for $25,000. I saw it and it looked ok. Too rich for my blood though.
They got cheaper. :)
I’ll be checking them out this Christmas season.
>>And while we wait for OLED to drop in price, the other technologies keep getting better and they are already affordable. That’s why OLED may never catch on.<<
I’ve seen it go both ways. 8-track stopped getting better, as did Cassette and open reel. Sometimes one technology is trumped by another that does the same thing cheaper and better. Sometimes staggeringly better.
I even sold a few El-cassette decks back in the day. ;)
To be fair, I am a huge fan of LED lighting. I have no doubt whatsoever that it will completely eclipse almost all other light sources for consumer goods that need light, right down to car headlights.
I think i’ll wait for the OLED TV’s.
Have you seen that little Sony OLED set?
tiny but the pic is supposed to be superb.
>>They’re on the market, expensive...<<
So were the first “pocket” calculators. :)
I still have a Radio shack ad from the very early 70’s. It advertises, on the back page, a “battery powered” pocket calculator that adds, subtracts, multiplies and divides, AND has memory for a low $149.00 It is almost too bulky to put in your pocket.
This was when a large pizza at Shakeys was $3.99 and gas was less than 30 cents a gallon. And if you made more than $4.00 an hour you were doing very well.
They even use color oled’s as surfaces on the keys on some computer keyboards to change the surface image.
OLED’s once made practical, will blow away everything we currently use. They will be incredibly thin and light, needing less bulky support framework, and power consumption will be disgustingly low.
They will be a PERFECT candidate for the new wireless power transmission. I have no doubt at all that within 10 years, at the absolute most, you will bring your new TV home, hang it on the wall like a picture, and the video source AND power will be totally wireless. It will almost certainly connect to those sources in a similar way to how bluetooth devices interact.
Kids today marvel that my generation had to use tv’s without remote control. Their kids will marvel that they had to use TV’s and sound systems that had wires.
But I digress.
I’ve seen that keyboard.
VERY sweet and Very expensive.
:(
OLED. The future:
You get the idea.
I'm a big fan, too. But I can't wait for the quantum dot light sources which will be nearly 100% efficient.
Nice informative post. With all that considered, I still recommend people buy the largest screen size for their money. All the high tech isn’t noticeable to most people.
Yes, but you have to wonder about plasma technology’s long term viabilty, given that Pioneer has exited that market.
I had never heard of quantum dot light sources until you just brought it up. I just googled it. Fascinating.
I saw a youtube video called “did you know 3” that convinced me that, if a couple of predictions in there are true (about computing power increases over the next couple of decades), mankind will unlock ALL the secrets of how our physical world (AKA “creation”) works with mind numbing implications. I believe we will be able to manipulate matter, energy, distance and time at will.
I believe it will happen in less than 75 years.
Except I believe the Lord will return first.
>>With all that considered, I still recommend people buy the largest screen size for their money. All the high tech isn’t noticeable to most people.<<
Seriously, I concur.
I just brought it up as an example of how prices drop.
:)
That shouldn't affect a person's purchase decision today, should it?
Pioneer was at the very high end. There are still three big brand names in the business, and I think their improved quality for a much less money is why Pioneer is getting out.
How accurate has Swann been in the past?
“Except I believe the Lord will return first.”
Where were you last November?
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