blue = Huckster
red = Mittster
Posted on 07/08/2009 7:43:01 AM PDT by kevkrom
Let's, for a moment, simply take for granted that Sarah Palin will run as a Republican for President in 2012 and win the party's nomination. (A similar exercise can be done for other candidates of choice, of course.)
The question that needs to be answered is: how does she win? That is, what is the path to 270+ electoral votes?
I think it would be a safe assumption to say that Palin would win every state McCain won, so she starts with 173 EV right there: Alabama Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska (4/5), North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming.
Barring a total landslide, what states are total lost causes? I'd say: California, Connecticut, DC, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine (3/4), Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington. (Total: 189 EV)
That leaves the preliminary "battleground" (defined as "states Obama won but are not certain for him in 2012") as:
Colorado 9
Florida 27
Indiana 11
Iowa 7
Michigan 17
Nebraska (1/5)
Maine (1/4)
Minnesota 10
Nevada 5
New Hampshire 4
New Mexico 5
North Carolina 15
Ohio 20
Pennsylvania 21
Virginia 13
Wisconsin 10
So, where to get 97 or more EV? Okay, first of all, to have any chance, Palin needs to turn IN, NC, and VA back red (39 down, 58 to go). Under the "must win two of FL/OH/PA" principle, assume she needs FL and OH, that's another 47. So we're down to 9.
Where can she get them? Any one of CO, MN, or WI would be enough.
So, Palin's path to victory includes: all McCain states, FL, IN, NC, OH, VA, and one of CO/MN/WI. Can she do it? If so, how?
Rasmussen polling disagrees with your assertions. She's the first choice of roughly 1/4 of the GOP (just 1% behind Romney, 25-24, well within statistical margin of error) but has a higher "strongly approve" (45-39) and "approve" (76-73).
On the flip side, she does have higher disapproval numbers (21-19) -- but she also has 97% of respondents citing approval or disapproval (Romney, on the other hand, has 18% of respondents neither approving nor disapproving), likely because she's the best known candidate. And many of those people know her better as the Tina Fey character than herself; she has plenty of time to address this.
Correction, that should by 8% neither approving nor disapproving Romney, not 18%. I used to be good at math, once upon a time... *sigh*
Not at all. THe Rasmussen polling shows that her "first choice" and "last choice" percentages are about equal at over 20%.
That "last choice" number is proof of the unease, and it can only grow as Palin is forced to campaign on real issues, rather than bank on her current celebrity status -- which is where most of her "first choice" numbers are coming from.
“She’ll never be able to advance Conservatism by remaining in the socialist Republicrat party.”
Reagan faced the same dynamic in the Republican Party of the 70s, which was just as “on the outs” as the one today, so obviously it can be done. But I think she’d be more effective advancing it through support of conservative candidates through the 2014, THEN see how 2016 shakes out. That said, of course, if she’s in for 2012, she has my vote.
Davenport, Iowa is a good place to have a small rally. And then Lebanon, New Hampshire.
If you truly believe that Obama won by painting himself as outside the progressive consensus that has dominated American politics since Wilson's inauguration, you are wandering blind. Nobody in America in 2008 saw Obama as a dramatic break from the tradition of Wilson, Roosevelt and Johnson. Nobody sees him that way now. If he fails, that tradition fails with him and the best political move for the Republicans is to get away from it as dramatically as possible in 2012. As of now, that probably means Palin.
It certainly means avoiding any candidate remotely like John McCain who is firmly in the Republican progressive tradition that began with TR. As their broad agreement about everything from TARP to cap and trade to illegal immigration suggests, McCain and Obama share the fundamental assumption of progressive utopians everywhere that, in their hands, government can manage society for the benefit of all. Republicans can't exploit Obama’s collapse without turning away from that common assumption.
The next two Republican campaigns will attack the idea that Washington knows best, or they will be exercises in futility. If Obama continues to fail spectacularly, America will be extremely impatient with that idea and eager to elect candidates who reject it. If he succeeds,Republicans will soon be flirting with their record low of 86 seats in the House.
No prominent politician in America today is as well-situated to run against the idea that Washington knows best as is Sarah Palin. I don't know where you get the idea that she would be a disaster as a candidate. You never try to defend that assumption and it just seems bizarre to me. All the contempt America's political elite has heaped on Palin strengthens her by making her an outsider at a time when outsiders are very likely to have the inside track. Ideologically, she is a blank slate and free to define herself as Obama’s opposite, which is exactly what the country is likely to crave come 2012.
Open your mind just a crack and consider that Sarah Palin may be exactly what the doctor ordered. If she didn't exist, Republicans would probably have had to invent her. Of course she could blow all her advantages, but there is nothing in her past to suggest that she is likely to do so.
Obama's support had nothing to do with the "progressive consensus." His support is a quasi-religious movement that has more to do with his color than anything else.
No prominent politician in America today is as well-situated to run against the idea that Washington knows best as is Sarah Palin.
Oh, pooh. Sarah Palin served a half-term as governor of a small state. She has no serious executive experience, and I cannot imagine somebody like Vladimir Putin taking her seriously.
We don't need another president who will have to gain experience on the job. We need somebody who's ready to go. I cannot honestly name who that person may be. But I'm quite sure that Sarah Palin is not it.
Not necessarily. A Republican who has nothing different to offer might not benefit from Obama’s collapse. Consider a thought experiment: What if the GOP had nominated Gerald Ford for a rematch with Carter in 1980. Ford, and Nixon before him had been complicit in creating all the situations, foreign and domestic, that cost Carter his popularity and, at some level, everybody understood that. I bet Ford would have contrived to lose again because he couldn't have presented a real alternative to the incumbent. For the same reason, I doubt that GHWB could have beaten Carter if he had ended up on top of the 1980 ticket.
Similarly, no matter how badly Obama flames out, it will be tough to beat him with a McCain or a Romney or anyone else from the progressive Republican tradition. The GOP needs someone different. Say what you will about the divine Sarah, she's different.
First, she has to get Repubs elected in 2010, then we can worry about 2012.
It is pretty obvious that a large majority of Freepers support Sarah Palin. It is also obvious that a very small, but vocal, minority of Freepers absolutely despise her (this includes you and steve-b. You guys seem to speak for what you claim is a majority of voters who would reject Sarah Palin. From what I see on FreeRepublic, the majority of conservatives support her. Does that mean this site is not representative of the conservative movement, or are you just engaged in wishful thinking about her chances?
It's the mirror image of the problem with modern "feminism" -- the obnoxious fringe of lesbian misandrist bigot feminazis has arrogated to itself the place of "leadership" and is all too rarely called out on that presumption.
So what? A "large majority of FReepers" represents an extremely tiny and proportion of the electorate -- and it's a self-selecting crowd, to boot.
It is also obvious that a very small, but vocal, minority of Freepers absolutely despise her (this includes you and steve-b
LOL! I don't "absolutely despise her." I merely choose to look at her abilities and chances realistically. I'm not impressed by what I see.
Does that mean this site is not representative of the conservative movement
LOL! Based on threads like this one, I sure as hell hope not.
or are you just engaged in wishful thinking about her chances?
Call me in two years, FRiend, and we'll see whose thinking is "wishful."
What basic rhetorical fallacy is illustrated here? Let's not always see the same hands....
Do you really think Obama’s support has no history? Can you really be unaware of his antecedents? He isn't sui generis. His support is certainly “quasi-religious”, but no more so than Roosevelt's and his skin color is almost irrelevant. He epitomizes a tradition, an approach to politics and government that has been dominant in the US for nearly 100 years. If conservatives play their cards right, Obama’s failure can discredit that tradition and usher in real change.
The counter-counterrevolution is going o require leadership and the leadership will have to be firmly outside the conventional consensus. Reflexive hostility to the only Republican leader who currently fits that bill is just stupid.
A primer: Behind the reasons for rampant liberal paranoia
**”Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin helped Auburn celebrate hometown son William Seward’s purchase of Alaska in 1867 as part of the upstate New York community’s inaugural Founder’s Day on Saturday.
“More than 20,000 people turned out to see Palin lead a parade through downtown Auburn and sign a proclamation honoring Seward, the 19th-century Secretary of State who negotiated the $7.2 million deal with Russia for Alaska, which is celebrating its 50th year of statehood.”
**”Vice President Joe Biden visited a small town on the outskirts of Erie PA today to talk to rural folks about federal stimulus money that can be used to expand broadband access to the Internet for rural areas that typically have poor connections.
“Apparently stimulus money and broadband are not all that interesting to the local folk here: Only around 100 or so people have showed up so far to hear Biden talk at noon at Seneca High School off Route 8 in Wattsburg.
“The room looked so sparse that about 30 or so chairs were removed by volunteers to give the illusion of a full house.”
I did: "Sarah Palin served a half-term as governor of a small state. She has no serious executive experience, and I cannot imagine somebody like Vladimir Putin taking her seriously."
The counter-counterrevolution is going o require leadership and the leadership will have to be firmly outside the conventional consensus.
OK. But it will also need a leader who is taken seriously by more than just her ardent fans. Sarah Palin is not that person, and I seriously doubt she can become that sort of heavyweight.
To begin with, she cultivates some extremely unfortunate and easily parodied mannerisms. Worse, she has an awful tendency to use those mannerisms to offer cute quips, apparently as subsititues for substantial, sustained, and well-reasoned arguments.
For the same reason, she is unable to compellingly articulate a broad and coherent vision of conservatism that will appeal to the broader audience that must be reached. Assuming, of course, that she even has the ability to forumulate such a vision in the first place.
Moreover, having now resigned from the one job that could have provided it, Sarah Palin has no prospects of gaining the necessary executive experience. The country doesn't need another amateur president.
And, finally, we are living in extremely dangerous times internationally, and Obama is daily making it more dangerous. Be honest: are you really ready to place your trust in Sarah Palin's ability to deal with Russia, China, or Iran? No, I didn't think so.
Yeah, I'm sure nobody would have turned out for that parade had Sarah Palin not been there.... (/rolling eyes)
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