“These guys were out to lunch.”
And still are of course. I’m naturally pessimistic, but it’s hard to see a way out of this economic funk. I don’t know whether it will be the simple passage of time; a change in sentiment; a reset of stock market expectations so that anything not implying imminent collapse is big-time bullish. (We’re already at “no bad news matters”) But just using those car numbers, for an economy 70% consumer-based to make a smooth transition to 10 MM/16 MM; eg, to lose 3/8ths of its ooomph, all the while shouldering the tremendous debtload and fighting an administration possibly the most anti-business in history; is smoking the strongest of hopium. It’s a damn big, muddy cesspool of a hole to dig out of.
And I’m the flip side — I’m optimistic and really don’t perform well in short-side markets. In this market, I’ve made some money on the short side, but it is difficult because I’m not disposed towards shorting - even in the dot-bomb melt-down, where I had firm, unequivocal knowledge that many of the dot-bomb companies were run by idiots, I didn’t short them; I just moved to cash.
This time tho, I see very little in the fundamentals that makes me want to go long. Very little. And these “green shoots” idiots... I keep looking at the exact same data they’re looking at and I think that most registered investment advisors, CFA’s and others should simply be fired and prohibited from ever opening their mouths again. The divergence between their “analysis” and the reality down deeper in the stats is so far apart, there can be no other explanations other than a) they’re utterly incompetent or b) they’re liars and frauds. Either way, they should lose their licenses.