My scenario:
- Current inventory shortage is caused by a large amount of ammunition being shunted into stockpile, either by manufacturers or by distributors. This pushes prices up while it spurs demand through rumors of government betrayal.
- Unfettered by any meaningful checks and balances, the UN treaty on international arms is ratified. This restricts handloading by imposing extra-national laws on the U.S. citizenry.
- Further restrictions on ammunition are imposed. Based on "reasonable" requirements (perhaps matching "microstamping" of bullet and case), handloaded ammunition is made illegal beyond some arbritary cutoff date.
- The administration's proposal for excessive taxes on ammunition is made law, resulting in up to 1,000% tax on ammunition produced after a specific date.
- The stockpile is released. Since the consumer cannot tell the difference between pre-tax ammunition and post-tax ammunition, the price for both on the shelf is the same, resulting in a windfall profit for manufacturers and distributors as they pocket the tax moneys they collected on pre-tax ammunition, but are not required to pass on to the government.
*** Epilogue: A sizeable portion of the windfall profits from the tax $crewing finds its way into the pockets of lobbyists, and campaign funds of legislators.
That sounds about right. I was only able to find 1 box of 6.5x55 for Swedish Mauser.