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To: Dick Bachert
I don't really care what the TOTUS script reader has to say. It's all moot; not only will each & every one of his handlers' agenda items fail, but he will (figuratively) preside over the actual reduction of the US budget.

The bottom line is that there isn't sufficient margin (ie asset inflation) to sustain the level of credit expansion necessary to continue driving (illusory) economic activity in the form of consumer spending. In other words, the FIRE economic model is DEAD. As a result, the tax receipts derived from income, sales, property & capital gains taxes necessary to support the welfare state are cratering.

In the near-term, as a result of slowing export demand & growing unemployment, both sovereign wealth funds (eg China) & domestic savers will greatly reduce, if not outright halt, their purchases of Treasuries. This will reach a point where the volume of debt sold will not even cover base-line operating deficits, much less finance the TOTUS fantasy budget (eg card check, health care, cap & trade, education, civilian force, etc).

And forget about printing money - after the People experience first-hand the immediate inflationary price spike effects of the Fed monetizing the debt via quantitative easing (QE), the Fed will be reigned in by Congress to prevent any further destruction of the $USD. (Because we ultimately need a steady, if weak, $USD to encourage foreign capital investment - assets [like factories], not debt.)

At this point, without the ability to either raise/access new credit via Treasury sales, nor print money by Fed QE, the Fedgov will have no choice but to make significant cut-backs so that expenditures meet revenues derived from actual hard-money tax receipts.

There is nothing the brain-fried crackhead nor his masters can do about this playing out. (The drug-addled -0- doesn't even have slightest clue as to what is transpiring. We are actually extremely fortunate that an affirmative action incompetent of his magnitude is the Left's token figurehead.) These course of events were set in motion decades ago and are now finally coming to their final fruition. Remember, socialism always fails! It does, it will, and it is actually in the process of doing so as we watch world events unfold.

Kick back and enjoy the show - just make sure you have food, firearms, family & friends in place to form your local support organization when the SHTF.

3 posted on 03/22/2009 9:17:37 AM PDT by semantic
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To: semantic
after the People experience first-hand the immediate inflationary price spike effects of the Fed monetizing the debt via quantitative easing (QE)

Quantitative easing in an environment of debt-deflation and asset-deflation does not cause immediate inflationary price spikes. QE is still another form of pushing on a string, so the problem with QE is not that we get a sudden bout of unacceptable inflation - look at Japan, they did QE for a decade and got no inflaton at all, ever.

The problem (or risk) with QE is almost the opposite your underlying theme. The extra base money goes out there, long term interest rates get pulled down to ridiculous lows, the govt keeps running record-level deficits, but for a couple of years there is still no hyperinflation to get the torches and pitchforks marches on the capital. And then a couple of years later We find outselves in one of the following situations:
a) Inflation and devaluaton suddenly explodes, but long long after anyone any longer believes it was possible anymore. Poeple ar eunprepared for it,politicians are unprepared, and the federal budget is suddenly crushed. We do not have a case of this happening in modern history, and don't go by Weinmar of Zimbabwe, what they did was much different.
b) We continue in a long, prolonged deflationary slump for a decade or decades. This is what has happened to Japan, although they were in a much different situation - they started out a net exporters with very low levels of debt and high levels of savings, and their currency was not a world reserve currency.
c) Prob our current best case scenario right now - we struggle with 1+ recessions over about 4-5 years, like in the early 1980s - but not a hyper-inflationary one.

Be careful within simple comparisons to Zimbabwe. What we're doing has never been done before - at least not in this situation. We have no idea what will happen in 3-4 years, and the types of possibilities are very broad.

14 posted on 03/22/2009 10:54:58 AM PDT by sanchmo
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To: semantic
BTW - many people ask me how it's possible that the Fed can "print" without causing inflation. Here's how:

We all agree that the fractional reserve banking system fuels inflation. The Fed controls the monetary base, but it is the banking system that expands that base to make the much larger M1 and M2 and MZM measures of total money, without the Fed having to do a thing.

The corollary is that in a deflationary crisis, it is that same fractional reserve system that fuels deflation by slowing lending, increases insolvencies and lower intrest rates. At this point the Fed can create base money all it wants, but if banks don't lend, that doesn't reall put much money into spending to drive up prices. The formula MV=PQ shows that prices are a factor of both the quantity of moeny and of Velocity (the level at which that money is spent). This chart shows what I mean. Fed has already doubled the monetary base, and all it did was nudge it slightly above its trend:

That is why I say that the Fed can ease without us seeing "immediate" inflation... although what happens 2-5 years from now is a much much different story.

16 posted on 03/22/2009 11:10:50 AM PDT by sanchmo
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