Valid, but the situation is more complicated. GC and PC made similar amounts worldwide (and Compass may have been slightly ahead expressed as return on investment). But going back to my #25, what matters sequelwise is domestic Box Office, and Compass only made $70M - a half Caspian. That gave a Compass sequel no chance, while Narnia III was on the bubble.
Compass was primarily financed by pre-selling the foreign distribution rights, with New Line surrendering every penny of foreign in the deal, in exchange for the cash to make the flick.
Opposite to what you’re saying, the foreign boxoffice potential of Compass is what got it made in the 1st place.
Disney passing on distribution means Anshultz either self-finances the flick 100 percent, which means Disney itself would turn around in a heartbeat and distribute it, or he pre-sells the foreign to fill the financing hole.
The Disney deal was teetering on collapse since the summer. Anshultz had months to obtain alternate financing, and I suspect Disney had been clear since July or August that they’d distribute, but they wouldnt finance.
So I am thinking no one wants in on Caspian, but it’s not really about Caspian. It’s about no one wanting to spend 100-200 million on a product with no idea what ticket prices are going to look like when the flick hits theaters.
Did you see the 30 % decline in November DVD sales? Stunning. The industry has no idea where the money is going to come from tommorow.