Interesting conversation around the turkey-dissecting table yesterday: if left alone, will this bag eventually collide with the space station on some future orbit?
Why could they not retrieve it
Knowing Murphy, chances are that it can hit something. Probably take out a Sat. while I’m watching the SuperBowl.
yes, this is possible, though not for long, as the apogee (apoapsis for you purists) of the toolbag orbit will eventually fall below the perigee (periapsis) due to atmospheric drag.
There is an odd influence on orbits from the equatorial bulge, tides, solar radiation. These forces tend to cause a net precession of the orbit more so than any other effect. So two bodies initially in roughly the same orbit adjacent to each other will tend to separate over time, more so if there is a slight velocity difference (The bag looked like it was heading off at a 1/4 fps or so).
However the inclination (maximum latitude of the orbit) will remain the same. So the eventually the two bodies will cross paths, effectively with the same orbit but with different bearings.
The details of how to calculate the maximum closing velocity are based on the maximum bearing angle of the tracks. My rough estimate is 28,000mph based on bearing angles for the orbital track where the orbit crosses the equator. An orbital inclination of 51 degrees has a bearing angle of 38 degrees at the equator, so the angle to equator would be 90-38 = 52.
Probably by the time the bag's orbit would have changed enough to be a danger it will have already re-entered.