The Ares V is supposed to be able to carry a 71 ton object to the Moon.
For this reason, its first cargo there should include a small nuclear reactor, and a tunneling robot. Living in tunnels avoids both cosmic and enhanced radiation, vacuum, cold and heat extremes, and the very abrasive Lunar dust.
Horizontal tunnels in rock make extended Lunar missions much easier and more complex. A tunneling robot could enlarge the tunnel in a slow and methodical manner, periodically inserting advanced ceramic reinforcing rod (strong, lighter, and more durable than steel), and spray the inside of the tunnel with sealant against microfissures.
Because it is on a one-way trip to the Moon, its lander could be cannibalized for pressure doors, flooring and other structural supports.
Once a suitable habitation tunnel had been built, the tunneling robot could dig an inside cistern to be used for water, then it could tunnel in search for water ice. Once all the tunneling has been done, the nuclear reactor could be used as a power source for the tunnel complex.
Not having to bring habitats with them every time, much more supplies, equipment, and food can be brought on subsequent missions.
I was impressed that the Ares can put 206 tons into LEO, which exceeds the Saturn V (I believe... actually I didn’t check that), and beats the Apollo booster’s “to da moon” payload. Using the human-rated iteration probably requires multiple launches, along the lines you suggest — sending the surface habitat (more like a habitrail) on ahead, then putting the crew there.
Using a trajectory to the moon similar to the one used by the Clementine probe, I wonder how much more the Ares V could deliver?
No expert here but without an atmosphere and in the vacuum of space, I would expect H2O ice to have sublimated long ago if there ever was any.