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And they were all white, experienced, vetted, didn’t pal around with terrorists, native-born, patriotic, and had actual accomplishments. Obama broke all those trends, surely he can break the two-term trend. It’s worth looking into specific reasons why incumbents win, and finding a way around that in 2012. Too early to tell about Obama. If he goes the Clinton centrist route, then he’s 80% likely to be two-term. If he actually pushes his agenda, then he’s Jimmy Carter with voter fraud to help him out.

Clinton did poorly his first two years with a Democratic Congress. It was only after the Republican takeover of Congress in 1994 that he learned to play off Congress, take credit for measures Congress forced on him like welfare reform, and increase his popularity. It remains to be seen if the Republicans have the ability to regain Congress in 2 years--at the moment the prospects don't look good.

I think the breakdown in the Senate in 2010 will be 19 Republican seats up for re-election and only 15 Democrats--including a bunch that will be hard to take away (CA, CT, HI, IL, MD, NY, OR, VT, WA, WI). It will be an uphill task to reduce the Democrats' majority, let alone recapture the Senate.