Frank Luntz represents the “conventional wisdom” in the media. In Trade only shows a 16 percent chance of McCain winning on Tuesday. I hope they are wrong, but those are the numbers out there.
And yes, I do like Frank Luntz as he will surprise you now and then. But too often he takes what his focus groups say at face value. What people say is not the same thing as what they do.
Is there any conservative pundit whom we would not flame if they started saying Obama will probably win?
Hannity, Rush, Levin? Is there anybody that could give us the ultimate bad news and we wouldn’t flame them?
Interesting that you posted the Intrade odds.
When I first learned of that site from Glenn Beck, I thought this to be some sage predictor. Something that was vast and solid evidence of things to come.
Then I saw them completely get the VP pick wrong and those odds go up and down in a matter of minutes. Massive moves.
This is just a bunch of hyped up Generation Y’ers who like to computer gamble.
Is McCain trailing now? Sure. But I wouldn’t use Intrade as my reasoning for it.