Intrade can and has been manipulated. No doubt it will be used to put despair into McCain voters.
Don’t waste your time or money there, it’s a con IMO.
Some guy likes to post why they are accurate, please spare me this time.
I can’t imagine how Intrade would actually be accurate, unless all the players were only there to make a profit.
But clearly they’re not. Some people are willing make enormous donations to their candidate. Nothing stops them from spending whatever amount of money they want to spend to make the Intrade numbers look like whatever they wish. The whole notion of Intrade breaks down unless it is being used to predict events that the traders are guaranteed to have no stake in.