Who says? Between 1966 - to the end of 1982 the market produced a return of 1.62%
There is no reason for the market to ever come back. If you are paying attention the WORLDS FINANCIAL systems has collapsed.
The people who buy and hold are sitting in their chairs as the house is burning down.
You account falls 50% you now need to have it move 100% to get even.
Good luck.
However, what you fail to mention is that in the 1970's we had interest rates in double digits, and investment money was in money market funds, not stocks. If we start having double digit interest rates again, you will see movement out of the stock market and into the bond market.
With the majority of pensions now defined contribution rather than defined benefit, there is built-in purchasing demand in the system that just didn't exist prior to 1980.
And isn't it an odd quirk of mathematics that if something goes from 10 to 5, then back to 10 again, it went down 50% but had to go up 100%, making it sound twice as hard? Besides, one doesn't invest solely in the Dow 30. Some is in energy funds, some in growth funds, some in large cap funds, some in Pacific Rim funds, some in bond funds. If I were waiting for NASDAQ to hit 4500 again, you'd be right to be skeptical. However, I think I'll be alright with my balanced portfolio in the long term.