I don’t disagree with any of you guys. But it appears CO and NM will flip from red to blue. Obie’s had a steady 4 or 5pt lead for some time. Then McCain must keep VA and flip a state with at least 5 EVs. If he can’t hold VA, he’s got no chance. Obie’s only up by 2 there, so it’s in play, but he’ll still need the additional 5 EVs. He still needs to flip a state.
Pollsters can’t predict who will actually show up to vote.