I read a thoughtful analysis earlier that predicted a shift to the east. So many of these storms ultimately shift east—that’s probably why it caught my attention.
This storm is on a westerly jog right now. No ifs ands or buts. This is gonna be a Texas storm unless it does a severe jog to the right.
A vast majority of storms do curve north and then northeast in the GOM. The pattern is not as favorable this go around for that to happen because of the high pressure position to the north. The jog north last night, probably partly caused by intensification probably makes it a bit harder to go into TX. The model consistency for LA has been something..