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To: NautiNurse

Gustav turned unexpectedly turned south, I am not an expert but it could turn into another Gilbert that devastated the Yucatan in 88.


3 posted on 08/28/2008 8:29:46 AM PDT by DallasBiff
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To: DallasBiff

We’ll have to wait and see if the forecast models adjust for the change.


5 posted on 08/28/2008 8:35:59 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: DallasBiff
Some explanation is needed for the robustness of the forecast at this point; start with this explanation from the Net:

"What is a short wave? No more than about half as long as a long wave. Short waves move more quickly, though. They travel eastward down the long wave and show up as a bump on the larger trend. This is where we label most of our upper troughs and ridges.

We also find that they are tied to maximum and minimum values in vorticity, with our troughs associated with higher vorticity and ridges with minimum vorticity. In this way, a short wave trough commonly indicates an axis of maximum vorticity. So what? This explanation ties in with weather in this fashion: air rises and clouds form ahead of a trough, while it descends and clouds dissipate in front of a ridge.

In fact vertical motion is responsible for this cloud co-relation. Also, these relations assist analysts in finding world map latitude longitude - troughs and ridges - by comparing to a satellite photo, especially where there is little other data to use, such as over the oceans."

Now look at the current 500MB map (commonly and historically used as a major tool in steering influences for hurricane development and movement)

An imaginary line drawn through the dips in the lines indicate the trough lines and one drawn along the upward peaks or bends show the ridges. The two to watch here is the trough from Canada to New Mexico and the ridge from the Atlantic coast through Floria toward Cuba's west end. The trough will draw Gustav up into the Gulf at the same time the ridge will force it to stay west of Florida's east coast. Right now they are betting on the high moving slowly north eastward while the trough moves generaly eastward and like you would push the bottom of a squeeze bottle to force the contents upward, Gustav will be pushed along the forecast path.

19 posted on 08/28/2008 9:04:44 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: DallasBiff
At this time, that's unlikely. There's yet **another** low in the Bay of Campeche that's forming up. This low will, unless it dissipates, have the effect of 'pushing' Gustav away from Yucatan, northward.

Super bad luck for NO and the crude/NG production rigs in GOM.

94 posted on 08/28/2008 12:12:07 PM PDT by SAJ (lid)
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To: DallasBiff

The computer models are too much in agreement till it gets over land. I’d be very surprised if it did anything that unexpected at this point.


1,250 posted on 08/30/2008 8:14:52 PM PDT by metmom (Welfare was never meant to be a career choice.)
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