TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[rodguy911]

WOW 143 knots=163 MPH.

[LA Woman3]

BREAKING NEWS: Jeff Parish 3 p.m. Update

Broussard calls for voluntary evacuation on west bank of Jefferson
Broussard asks east bank to ‘use best judgment
Strict curfew in place Sunday from dusk until Monday dawn

[nwctwx]

Flight level though, so there’s a reduction. It is probably around 150mph.

[rodguy911]

Wow, why not!!

[lainie]

Does anyone here really think Gustav is headed for New Orleans?

The USN thinks just west of NO ... is that St. Mary parish on the line? I'm not that familiar. Looks to be about 100 miles west of NO.

[rodguy911]

It’s tough losing it all and starting over, we did all that about 9 years ago when the house burned down. Seems like it took forever to build back.

[nralife]

Thanks for the update. No, I wish no harm on anyone. It's my wish that Gustav peters out in the Gulf, but it doesn't look like that will happen.

The BYU worst case scenario was (and maybe still is) for the eye to come ashore to the right of the city. That way, Lake Pontchartrain to the north fills up and overtops the levees. Much like happened with Katrina.

[rodguy911]

Oh yeah for sure, elevation is a different world, that’s true.

[Lawdoc]

I think Gustav is already to the right of that plot. So the swing to the right (if any) 5 days out is anyone’s guess.

[rodguy911]

The Navy is usually the most accurate IMHO, and at that angle there will be a tremendous amount of destruction if it actually hits like they show.

[NonValueAdded]

000
WTNT22 KNHC 302046
TCMAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
2100 UTC SAT AUG 30 2008

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 500 PM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED ALONG THE PANHANDLE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM EAST OF THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...ISLA DE JUVENTUD...MATANZAS...AND CIENFUEGOS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCE OF VILLA CLARA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...AND CAMAGUEY...AND FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE TO DRY TORTUGAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 82.9W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 45SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 45SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 82.9W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 82.6W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 23.4N 84.4W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 25.3N 86.5W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 125SE 100SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.2N 88.6W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 29.0N 90.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 32.0N 94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 32.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 82.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[abb]

5 pm EDT update
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200807_5day.html#a_topad

[Sunnyflorida]

“I take that back Fox News just said it was a cat 5”

When ever it comes to science and geography FNC is completely unreliable. It is scary how stupid they are. I think both of the current announcers are law school grades.

[rodguy911]

From what I have seen its rare that a cat 5 storm keeps that level for a long, long time, just very rare. Seems the conditions have to be almost perfect to achieve that level and maintain it.

I think the rain possibilities will all be controlled by forward speed.

[nralife]

Thanks for the link! I read here earlier that the Navy had the most trustworthy projections. They are concerned with their ships, not politics, population centers, etc.

[nwctwx]

150 it is... ouch.

NHC now officially going with cat 4 landfall in LA.

[NonValueAdded]

Winds down a bit, a LOT of north in that last fix.

[Elle Bee]

evacuate ???

What's that?

Neighbor's tree just took out a few boards on my fence on the north side

No real rain or wind outside of the occasional band

.

[spectre]

What concerns me is that Hannah is following within days of Gustav's landfall. If she goes into the Gulf, that's where it turns into a close call just who goes back home and when?

This has the potential of unspeakable hardships.

sw

[rodguy911]

OMG they show Gustave remainging a five for over 24 hours,must have some huge intensity!!