Pressure 988...Winds 50 mph.
New TD 8 has formed in the Atlantic Ocean ENE of the
Northern Leeward Islands. Moving WNW at 5 mph.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
TANKS a Bunch,Lainie,,,
IMO Bobby is in the Git`R’Done mode at this point,,,
The ‘contra-flow’ cannot start too early so that the folks
that have to go to that area to get their kin/friends out
can get in and get out,,,! (time factor),,,
Last time cost 1800 + Dead !,,,Not On Bobby’s Watch!,,,
That 30 feet of water in the French Quarter comes from the
hydrologists at LSU,,,NOT ME,,,from 20-30 years ago,,,
The Smart ones are leaving NOW,,,
The Dumb ones will wait,,,
The FOOLS will stay...:0/
Just got back on line today, computer hasn’t been well - tried to eat to much electricity. Friends in Houston spent the day at the beach making sure the beach house was secure and all safe. They aren’t taking any chances since they feel that they have been to lucky in the past couple of years.
****trail of breadcrumbs****
Surprise everybodyTropical Storm Gustav Discussion Number 13
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 28, 2008
an Air Force reconnaissance plane has found a surprise this morning.
Gustav has either reformed to the south or been moving more to the
south-southwest overnight. In addition...the pressure is down 10 mb
during the last six hours. The plane has not yet sampled the entire
storm...but it is assumed the winds have come up slightly with the
significant pressure fall and the initial intensity is increased to
45 kt. Mid-level dry air...some northeasterly shear...and
interaction with Jamaica may limit the intensification of this
system during the next day or so. Thus the official intensity
forecast is only slightly raised from earlier. Thereafter...the
global models are forecasting an upper anticyclone to be near the
center of Gustav...which would be quite favorable for
strengthening. It is expected that Gustav will be a powerful
hurricane as it moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday.
Southwesterly vertical wind shear could increase late in the period
when the system is forecast to be in the northern Gulf but there is
considerably uncertainty at that time.
The best estimate of initial motion is 215/7. The reformation of
the center has caused a big southward change in the early part of
the forecast...and Gustav is now forecast to pass near the South
Coast of Jamaica. The northeast-southwest oriented ridge centered
over the Florida Peninsula that has been causing this southwestward
motion is expected to weaken over the next few days. This should
allow Gustav to turn more to the west and then northwest around the
time it enters the Gulf of Mexico. A mid-latitude high is forecast
to be in the Ohio Valley in about 5 days...which may continue
steering the storm in a northwestward fashion rather than allow a
more northward motion like the GFDL suggests. The official forecast
is shifted westward in the longer-term...on the eastern side of the
model guidance envelope...but the ECMWF and GFDL are to the right
of the NHC forecast.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/0900z 17.8n 75.6w 45 kt
12hr VT 28/1800z 17.5n 77.0w 55 kt
24hr VT 29/0600z 17.8n 78.5w 60 kt
36hr VT 29/1800z 18.5n 80.3w 65 kt
48hr VT 30/0600z 19.5n 82.0w 75 kt
72hr VT 31/0600z 22.0n 85.5w 95 kt
96hr VT 01/0600z 26.0n 89.0w 100 kt
120hr VT 02/0600z 28.5n 91.0w 100 kt
$$
forecaster Blake/Avila
And a new TDTropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1...Corrected
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 28, 2008
...Correction to SAB Dvorak T-number...
The area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave that has
been tracked westward across the tropical Atlantic for the past
several days has developed enough surface circulation and deep
organized convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A
ship very near the center also reported a pressure of 1005 mb near
the center. Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.5 and 2.0
respectively. Initial intensity has been set at 30 knots. Although
the center is estimated to be on the northwestern portion of the
convection...the prevailing northwesterly shear over the cyclone
has been gradually abating and the outflow is becoming established
in all quadrants. Most of the global models suggest that ridging
will prevail aloft...resulting in an environment of light shear. A
gradual intensification is forecast in agreement with the SHIPS
intensity model...and the depression will likely become a tropical
storm later today and could reach hurricane intensity in 3 days.
The HWRF and GFDL models are more aggressive...predicting an
intense hurricane.
The depression is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 5
knots while embedded within very light steering currents. The large
trough currently located over the western Atlantic is forecast to
be replaced by a large subtropical ridge over the next few days.
This pattern should force the cyclone to take a more west-northwest
track in a day or so. The flow around an upper-low just north of
Puerto Rico could also induce some westward component over the next
few days. By the end of the forecast period...the steering flow is
expected to weaken and the cyclone could meander for a while. The
track forecast is basically in the middle of the guidance envelope
which indeed shows a westward track beyond 4 days.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 28/0900z 19.8n 57.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 28/1800z 20.5n 58.8w 35 kt
24hr VT 29/0600z 22.0n 60.5w 40 kt
36hr VT 29/1800z 23.5n 62.5w 45 kt
48hr VT 30/0600z 25.0n 64.5w 55 kt
72hr VT 31/0600z 26.0n 67.0w 70 kt
96hr VT 01/0600z 27.0n 69.0w 75 kt
120hr VT 02/0600z 27.0n 70.5w 75 kt
$$
When Katrina was approaching, the feds offered to help Louisiana evacuate such persons. The state turned them down ... until Sunday, when it was too late to do much good.
More little details the MSM doesn't report as they try to blame the failings of Katrina on Bush. Jindal has a comprehensive plan. Blanco had a two-step plan - cry to the media and blame everyone else.
New TD 8 has formed in the Atlantic Ocean ENE of the
Northern Leeward Islands. Moving WNW at 5 mph.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->
Well, 95L is now TD 8, so the Euro model is on-track. And Gustav did the opposite of what I had hoped, drifted SW instead of NW. Jamica will slow down development, but only for a short time. Having Gustav run down or along the length of Cuba would have been much better - although the 1900 Galveston hurricane did that and still was a monster by the time it reached Texas.
Thanx for the ping.
“... 1900 Galveston hurricane...”
Several people have mentioned Isaac’s storm when discussing Gustav. *Twitch*
/Islander
0500 EDT forecast track has shifted well west
Learning from Katrina, I hope he's already packed, and has a full tank of gas (plus some bottled water and snacks), because once the official evac order is issued, there will be no gas to be found in N.O. or along Interstate-10
The good thing is that it's scheduled to hit Monday, so most people don't have the excuse of "my boss expects me at work"
The problem with using school buses is that most of the drivers are local people who will be more concerned about their own families. Ideally, there would be a plan to import drivers.
Yep, bags are packed and car is stocked. He is supposed to work all this weekend, but I assume if he has to evac his job will still be there upon his return.
VirginiaMom
Apparently so, more's the pity:
Mayor C. Ray Nagin Returns To New Orleans Due To Gustav (WE'RE SAVED!)
Not that I'm unconcerned for the people in Gustav's path but Florida has had more than it's share since '05
maybe we just don't have Mayor Nagen and once the storm passes no one ever seems too concerned about the Floridians left in the wake
.
This is starting to seem vaguely familiar.....
I’m not buying anything to put in the freezer for a while!
susie
Labor day weekend, all meats are on sale, will be stocking up bigtime.
OTOH, after Aliison and mant stores lost power, they was almost giving the stuff away.
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