Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
I don’t like the looks of this one.
Since I didn't see this posted here already.
Does anyone here subscribe to Larry Cosgrove’s e mail list? I had a crash and lost last Sunday’s e mail. Any help would be greatly appreciated.
Eeesh...GFDL and NOGAPS models are running this storm toward NOLA.
GFDL and NGPS would make gas prices shoot up and empty New Orleans out.
Canadian model puts Gustav in at central TX coast.
This thing is gonna be a bear.
Thanks for posting the link to the models. I’ll remember to add that to the next thread. I have an ominous feeling there will be another Gustav thread.
What is the intensity forecast?
There’s a tiny pinprick in the COC in the last frame of that, and it’s way too early for eyewall formation. What is that pinprick?
The GFDL forecasts 932mb = solid Category 4.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2008
an Air Force reconnaissance mission early this morning found peak
flight-level winds of 91 kt...and an SFMR surface wind of 78 kt.
These measurements support an initial intensity of 80 kt. A
dropsonde released in the eye of Gustav during the last aircraft
pass through the center just before 1200 UTC...found a surface
pressure of 982 mb...but with 12 kt of wind at the surface...so the
minimum pressure has been estimated slightly lower. The aircraft
and earlier microwave satellite imagery indicate the presence of a
very small eye...however the eye has not yet become apparent in
conventional satellite imagery.
Gustav continues to move northwestward toward the southern coast of
Haiti...with an initial motion estimate of 325/8. Track model
guidance is in good agreement on a turn toward the west-northwest
very soon around the south side of a mid- to upper-level ridge
located over Florida. There remains a large amount of spread in
the models at 72 hours and beyond. The 00z UKMET and ECMWF models
maintain the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico...which keeps Gustave
moving westward towards the Yucatan Peninsula. The
GFDL...HWRF...and GFS weaken the ridge which allows for a
west-northwestward motion into the central Gulf of Mexico. The new
NHC track forecast leans toward the GFS/HWRF scenario and is a
little to the right of the model consensus.
Conditions appear favorable for additional strengthening before the
center reaches mountainous terrain along the southern coast of
Haiti. Some weakening is forecast during Gustav’s passage over
land...and since it is a very small system it could weaken a little
more than shown below. Thereafter...Gustav is expected to be over
warm waters and in a low shear environment...which favors
strengthening. The official forecast is below that of the GFDL...
but is close to the intensity consensus and the HWRF.
One should remember that 4 and 5 day forecasts are subject to
potentially large errors in both location and intensity.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/1500z 17.9n 72.4w 80 kt
12hr VT 27/0000z 18.6n 73.3w 75 kt
24hr VT 27/1200z 19.1n 74.6w 80 kt
36hr VT 28/0000z 19.3n 75.9w 85 kt
48hr VT 28/1200z 19.4n 77.3w 90 kt
72hr VT 29/1200z 19.9n 80.2w 100 kt
96hr VT 30/1200z 21.5n 83.5w 105 kt
120hr VT 31/1200z 24.0n 87.0w 105 kt
$$
forecaster Brown/Pasch
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 26, 2008
...Gustav approaching the South Coast of Haiti...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Barahona in the Dominican
Republic westward to Le Mole St Nicholas Haiti. Preparations to
protect life and property should have been completed.
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the government of Cuba has issued
a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...
Santiago de Cuba...and Granma. A Hurricane Warning means that
hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area...
generally within 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from Le Mole St
Nicholas to the northern Haiti/Dominican Republic border.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Las
Tunas and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests in central and western Cuba and the Cayman Islands should
closely monitor the progress of Gustav.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Gustav was located
near latitude 17.9 north...longitude 72.4 west or about 50 miles...
80 km...south of Port au Prince Haiti and about 240 miles...390 km
...Southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph...15 km/hr.
A turn toward the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed
forecast is expected later today...and a general west-northwestward
motion is expected Wednesday. On this track this hurricane should
move over southwestern Haiti later today and near or just south of
eastern Cuba on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph...150 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Gustav is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale...and additional strengthening is possible before the center
moves over land today. Some weakening is likely when Gustav moves
over Haiti...however restrengthening is forecast as the center
approaches eastern Cuba on Wednesday.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70
miles...110 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb...28.97 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8
inches over Hispaniola...eastern Cuba...and Jamaica...with isolated
maximum amounts of up to 20 inches possible. These rains will
likely produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near
and to the east of where the center makes landfall.
Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...17.9 N...72.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained winds...90 mph.
Minimum central pressure...981 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown/Pasch
I’m getting that sick feeling in the pit of my belly again...
I see that in what looks like the lower outer wall. Not sure what it is.
Turns out it’s a ‘hot tower’.
Something about this storm impresses me that it will not be wishy-washy or capricious, but just blow up huge and directly come ashore a monster.
If that track verified I think we’ll see a cat 4/5 at some point in the cycle.
Me too.
I'm all ready but feel like I ought to go do something.
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