Posted on 08/25/2008 8:27:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse
her?
Actually my panhandle trip is a week from tomorrow.
Late one night over the weekend I tuned into public TV and saw a NOVA program called “The Storm that Drowned a City” or something like that, about Katrina.
It did NOT show the news conference on Saturday where Nagin & Blanco refused to call for an evacuation, and Blanco suggested that people pray for Katrina to turn instead of evacuating, but it DID show the people who modeled the drill the year before, Max Mayfield, and the NOLA emergency management director, all of whom *knew* that Katrina was aimed at NOLA, what the probable results would be, and tried to warn the PTB.
If I’d made it, it would have been more scathing toward Nagin et.al., but it was pretty interesting.
the drive-bys don’t want you to see that.
hee hee
Tropical Storm Public Advisory
Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
...Gustav continues northwestward toward Hispaniola...
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the southern border of
Haiti...and for the southwest peninsula of Haiti from the southern
border with the Dominican Republic and Port-au-Prince westward. A
Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Haiti from north of
Port-au-Prince to the northern border with the Dominican Republic.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of
the Dominican Republic east of Barahona to Santo Domingo.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Gustav was
located near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 71.2 west or about 165
miles...270 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.
Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...and
a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple
of days. On the forecast track the center of Gustav will be moving
near or over Haiti on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Gustav could become a hurricane prior to moving over land.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
from the center.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb...29.41 inches.
Gustav is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 7
inches over Hispaniola...with isolated maximum amounts of up to 25
inches possible. These intense rains may produce life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides.
Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...16.4 N...71.2 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60 mph.
Minimum central pressure...996 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Franklin
Hi NN, looks like the five day has shifted a bit to the South and West, which is really good for us. Right now this looks like a Texas storm, of course that’s a long way off maybe 10-12 days.
I want to see another couple of model runs before writing off FL. We’re still in that big cone of uncertainty tonight. Plenty of time to watch for now.
WOW,,,that’s some rain,,,
Hopefully this next one will turn south,,,(Mexico)...
LOL,,,I was thinkin’ South America!!!...;0)
Gustav is French isn’t it? Wasn’t he the one who tried to steal Beauty and kill the Beast? Or was Gustav Beauty’s dad? I’m going to have to source this with my granddaughter.
Sounds like German to me...;0)
I was pretty surprised to see anything that politically incorrect on public tv, actually.
I can imagine. Usually they don’t bother to mention their failings and indeed bend over backwards to hide them.
I think the western to northern GOM needs to be most mindful at the moment... I don’t see this going to FL right now, perhaps the panhandle.
Gustav has the makings of a biggy. If things go right for it we’re going to see big headlines in a few days.
Any time one shoots the gap, everyone around the Gulf needs to sit up.
Computer models are half and half right now.
The trough that was tugging it north is moving on. I think NHC will shift south from earlier track at 11. The pattern strongly argues for it to head in the general direction of the Yucatan/Gap/Cuba area.
;’)
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 25, 2008
the cloud pattern has become better defined over the past few
hours...with a well-defined eye and a thickening eyewall. Dvorak
classifications at 00z were t3.5 from both TAFB and SAB but the
structure has improved since then. The initial intensity is
increased to 60 kt and the next aircraft at 06z will most likely
find a hurricane. A microwave pass at 2243z showed a low-level
eyewall. Given this structure...and a SHIPS RI index well above
climatology...significant strengthening is likely prior to the
center of Gustav reaching Haiti. After that...the intensity of
Gustav will depend largely on how much the circulation interacts
with the land masses of Haiti and Cuba. Global models forecast an
upper level pattern that...while not anticyclonic...is at least
difluent and of light shear. The latest forecast track indicates
more time over water than the previous advisory and so the
intensity forecast has been increased to reflect that. Both the
GFDL and the HWRF show Gustav avoiding nearly all of Cuba and have
Gustav as a major hurricane in five days.
The initial motion is 310/10. A mid-tropospheric anticyclone
centered in the northwestern Bahamas is forecast to remain largely
in place for the next three days or so. This pattern should result
in a slowing of Gustav’s forward speed and a turn to the left.
Except for the NOGAPS...the dynamical guidance models keep Gustav
south of central Cuba. The official forecast is adjusted southward
of the previous advisory but most of the primary guidance is even
farther south.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 26/0300z 16.6n 71.4w 60 kt
12hr VT 26/1200z 17.5n 72.6w 65 kt
24hr VT 27/0000z 18.5n 73.9w 80 kt...inland
36hr VT 27/1200z 19.3n 75.1w 75 kt
48hr VT 28/0000z 19.8n 76.2w 80 kt
72hr VT 29/0000z 20.5n 78.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 30/0000z 21.5n 80.5w 75 kt
120hr VT 31/0000z 23.0n 83.5w 75 kt
$$
forecaster Franklin
Signing off. Bookmark.
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