Hey, I’m not pretending to be some big State Department Russian expert here. I’m just a guy that sits in a cubicle all day and FReeps when he should be working, same as a lot of us.
But *why* am I wrong? You really think Putin intends to completely conquer Georgia, or at the least attack the capital? That might wake up even somnolent Western Europe. Maybe.
I don’t know what’s in Pooty Poot’s head. I just know that if he ended hostilities right now, in place, and forced Georgia to accept his terms—which he’s pretty much done—he’s won a huge victory, both tactical and strategic. If he doubles down and decides he wants more of Georgia, that’s a much bigger risk, isn’t it?
}:-)4
He could cut the country in half, isolate N from S and there is little right now we can do except kick them out and destroy whats left of the country.
I actually think your reasoning and presentation is really, really good.
Just happens to be wrong because Putin has much bigger things in mind! (my feeling)
I didn’t mean to discourage you — keep writing :)
The western penalty for taking all of Georgia and taking only a little of Gerogia is EXACTLY the same.
Trade/financial/political...and the first two will be MINOR. What is western europe going to do? Stop buying Russian oil and gas?
Russia has nothing to lose by pressing the offensive and capturing all of Georgia...and Azerbaijan...and Armenia.
I can't think of anything more the west will do, right or wrong.