Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.
Hidalgo county managers were talking today about the levee's breaking. So, I guess it's more about flooding, but you've got some good gusts coming.
He's saying Cat 2
I guess your ‘gusts’ are there!
CD grab the Godiva licker and hit the tub! Check in when you can. Prayers up for ya’ll down there.
I need a couple more hours. Still one more load of clothes to wash :’)
I was just watching Jim C on the island. We aren’t getting any of that. It’s raining and windy but not like what he’s out in.
(((Hugs))))Stay safe you all.
Hopefully it stays that way.
Hurricane Dolly Public Advisory #12A ...Tropical storm force winds beginning to spread across the coast... A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from Brownsville to Corpus Christi...and for the northeastern coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico and the United States. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from north of Corpus Christi to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from La Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 600 am CDT...1100z...the center of Hurricane Dolly was located near latitude 25.8 north...longitude 96.6 west or about 55 miles... 90 km...east of Brownsville Texas. Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr...and northwestward to west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected today. On the forecast track...the center of Dolly will be along the coast near the Texas/Mexico border around midday today. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph...140 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dolly is a category one hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some increase in strength is expected...and Dolly could approach category two intensity when it reaches the coastline later today. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles...220 km. An Air Force Reserve unit hurricane hunter aircraft recently reported a minimum central pressure of 972 mb...28.70 inches. Dolly is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over portions of south Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days. These rains will likely cause widespread flooding across portions of south Texas and northeast Mexico. Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of south Texas today and tonight. Repeating the 600 am CDT position...25.8 N...96.6 W. Movement toward...northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...85 mph. Minimum central pressure...972 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 800 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000 am CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
Now that’s funny. I’m waiting for the washer to finish in case I need it for sloppy wet towels tomorrow. One more until the power goes out.
Might as well, when there are tornado warnings, it’s good to sleep in shifts. Besides, the phones already ringing.
Looks like you have some wicked stuff coming in from the north, though.
Hurricane Dolly Discussion Number 12 Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on July 23, 2008 Air Force hurricane hunter dropsonde observations indicate that the central pressure has fallen to 976 mb...a rather significant decrease over the past couple of hours. Although the SFMR... dropsonde...and flight-level wind measurements up to now have yielded 70 kt for the current intensity...I have too much respect for this abrupt fall in pressure to not show any increase in strength. Therefore the current intensity is adjusted to 75 kt for this advisory. WSR-88D Doppler radar from Brownsville shows a banding-type eye that is trying to close off along with an increase in feeder bands over the past several hours. Cirrus-level outflow is fairly well-established. There is still a window of opportunity for Dolly to strengthen and the hurricane could be near category 2 intensity by the time it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one. Initial motion is a slightly slower 310/7. The track forecast philosphy is essentially unchanged. A mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the hurricane is expected to weaken slightly today but remain well-established enough to steer the hurricane on a northwestward to west-northwestward heading...with a slight additional deceleration. The track forecast is basically the same as before. This is right on top of the dynamical model consensus. Should Dolly move more slowly over extreme southern Texas than we are forecasting...it is possible for it to produce even more rainfall than we are currently predicting. Forecast positions and Max winds initial 23/0900z 25.6n 96.5w 75 kt 12hr VT 23/1800z 26.0n 97.4w 80 kt...inland 24hr VT 24/0600z 26.3n 98.7w 45 kt...inland 36hr VT 24/1800z 26.4n 100.5w 25 kt...inland 48hr VT 25/0600z...dissipated $$ forecaster Pasch
LOL. Seriously, I’m praying the bad stuff holds off a little bit longer. It’s shift change for health care providers. My husband is out , picking up nurses that couldn’t come in last night.
000 URNT12 KNHC 231053 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008 A. 23/10:35:50Z B. 25 deg 47 min N 096 deg 36 min W C. NA mb 2832 m D. 69 kt E. 057 deg 014 nm F. 137 deg 086 kt G. 057 deg 016 nm H. 972 mb I. 9 C/ 3046 m J. 14 C/ 3048 m K. 11 C/ NA L. C20 M. CLOSED N. 12345/7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 1904A DOLLY OB 05 MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 75 KT SW QUAD 10:39:30 Z NICE SPIRAL BANDS. ;
Thanks :’)
Nice expanded explanation of the Vortex Data Message.
Fox News is saying S Padre Island will get slammed yet the Dolly is coming ashore at Brownsville. Fear mongering as S. Padre is 100 miles north.
Thanks for posting that.
Not a prob. I’m just the early-morning crew that got here on the late end of things.
No, that’s NPI:’) S Padre Island is 20 miles from Port Brownsville. If we are in the eye we both are going to get bad weather.
But when the spaghetti's made, we're good to go.
Was stationed at NAS CC. Brownsville always seems so far away. Liked visiting the Confederate Air Force in Harlington (sp). Ya’ll be safe out there right now!!!
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