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But would it? Lee wins and then what? He's hundreds of miles behind Union lines with tens of thousands of casualties to care for and having shot off most of his ammunition. So he goes back to Virginia, what else can he do? In the mean time the Army of the Potomac is still intact, Grant still takes Vicksburg, Lincoln still calls him east in the fall. Spring comes and Grant still moves South, Sherman still goes after Atlanta, and at the end of the day the South still loses. Had Lee won at Gettysburg then we'd be talking about the upcoming 145th anniversary of Vicksburg, and Gettysburg would be just another Chancellorsville.

Huh? There would have been nothing between Lee and Washington at that point. Maryland was very much sympathetic to the south... forced into the Union by jailing politicians without a trial. Grant would have been forced to return to the area... possibly putting Vicksburg back into play. Everything changes if Lee wins at Gettysburg.

There would have been nothing between Lee and Washington at that point.

Except what was left of the Army of the Potomac and the Washington D.C. garrison manning the dozens of forts protecting the city. Lee would have about 45 or 50 thousand men, little ammunition, and thousands of wounded. Too little for a siege.

Maryland was very much sympathetic to the south... forced into the Union by jailing politicians without a trial.

Maryland's sympathy that you speak of certainly wasn't on display the year before during Lee's campaign in the North. It was a divided state, to be sure, but your suggestion that it's sympathies lay overwhelmingly with the South are exaggerated.

Grant would have been forced to return to the area... possibly putting Vicksburg back into play.

By the time Grant is recalled, Vicksburg is already lost - it surrendered on July 4th.

Everything changes if Lee wins at Gettysburg.

Sorry, but in the long run nothing changes. The South still loses.