RE: Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis
From that web site:
“Although ice extent is slightly greater than this time last year, the average decline rate through the month of May was 8,000 square kilometers per day (3,000 square miles per day) faster than last May. Ice extent as the month closed approached last May’s value.”
I don’t know how they figure that, nor do I know how they confidently extrapolate that into a complete melt projection. The pictures in this thread seem to indicate, regardless of this analysis claims, that sea ice is still greater this year at the end of June.
Go figure!
They are probably doing it with some kind of satellite algorithm, but there are no details readily available.
This winter there was a significant freeze/formation of first-year ice; this ice will be the fastest to melt, so if there was more ice cover at the "height of winter" than last year, and temperatures following roughly the same summer warming trend, then there is a probably a larger area of ice amenable to faster melting now than at a comparable time last year.