As somebody who has been in the Army I actually have more faith in the National Guard and Reserves than the Active Duty.
If a National Guardsman disobeys an order well what? He has a civilian job and don’t depend on the military for his family support. He has more contact with civilians than the active duty soldier and also knows the area he is living much better than someone on a military base. His unit is pretty easy going vs active duty so if they like the guy well they may cover up.
The active duty person has his family living on base, his pay is usually the sole support of that family. UCMJ is a whole lot scarier to the active duty soldier. You guys are living in Lala land if you think push comes to shove, their families support and jail time on the line that the active duty folks is going to disobey orders.
What proves me right is Jack Murtha. One hundred years ago if someone publicly bad mouth the Marines they would of had to go into hiding. Murtha can call the Marines fairies to their face and he knows not a one will risk their career or jail time to tar and feather Murtha.
The Marines is the key, if they are all up in arms about some liberal idea then it is going to be fine. If they are professional and quiet then forget about the active duty helping you.