Do you really mean to say that you believe the reasons for the war between the states boils down to one lost election?
It was a pretext. A pretext that provided a golden opportunity to inflame their despised mudsill element that would have to do the their fighting for them. But a pretext that would have set a fatal precedent. Of course the underlying reason was a desire to remove all obstacles to slavery rampant in North America.
That election was essentially a national referendum on the question: should slavery be expanded to the federal territories?
Those voting for Lincoln and Douglas - the candidates who were opposed to expansion of slavery into federal territories - constituted 70% of the electorate.
Only 30% of the American people voted for Bell and Breckinridge - the candidates amenable to such an expansion.
The Southern grandees saw the writing on the wall - they would no longer have enough votes in the Senate to block the admission of new free states.
So yes - it all boiled down to a single issue and the 1860 election revealed that the electorate was no longer willing to kowtow to a shrinking minority.