There is no major supply problem. The amount of wheat produced last year was about the same as the year before. Exports is up for all farm commodities because the USA has cheap food thanks to the cheap dollar.
1971-1975, 1977-1980 and the currently is a period of rapid commodities price growth. Supply wasn’t the issue back in the 70’s but devaluation of the dollar and inflation resulting from it.
The farmers of the 1970’s was told the exact same stuff that your article mentions. They was told to go ahead and expand because the demand for food was going up,up and up. When the Fed tightened money they soon found out that their crops and land wasn’t worth as much as they used to be worth.
Since most commodities Worldwide is priced directly or indirectly in dollars what happens when the value of a dollar changes. Lets say year 1 that a dollar is worth exactly one dollar. And in year 1 that X amount of corn sells for exactly $1. Year 2 the value of the dollar declines to 75 cents. Since the corn hasn’t declined in value then to make the same amount as they did in year 1 the traders value X amount of corn as $1.25
As long as the value of the dollar declines the people who believes in food shortages do alright but lets say year 3 the Fed really want to control inflation and the dollar rises to $1.25 in value. The price of X amount of corn will then be seventy five cents and those who don’t believe in a bubble is going to lose their shirts.
Knowing the history of bubbles one thing to know about bubbles is there is always experts and articles on how the current situation is different and is not a bubble.
3 years ago there was major surpluses of almost all crops and prices was low. The 8 years prior of 2007 was years of corn surpluses. There is certain localized supply problems such as a swine virus in China killing pigs or the rice crop failing in Vietnam or a deep freeze in April last year really hurt the fruit crops. I just don’t think there is a current major food or oil shortage.