Yeah, I had a moment of mental flatulence and calculated as if those who could choose either would have to have finished first in the 500’s as well as the hurdles. Nevertheless, the advice stands. 2 in 16 is better than 3 in 28. Ignore the two stage nature of the hurdles championships. It’s exactly the same as one more round in a playoff that starts with 28 entrants. For example, in the 500 championships, with 16 initial entrants, you will have to win 3 rounds to get to the final two, with each round probably getting more challenging as the cream rises to the top. Same story as the hurdles, except 12.5% of the starters get the brass ring, as opposed to 10.7% of the hurdlers.
Yeah, the basic odds are slightly better with the 500. It was the fact that I didn’t know exactly where I stood in the 500 pack and not knowing about the extra hurdle round. If I were 1st or 2nd in the 500 then there’d be no question however, if I were 3rd then... that’s where things got dicey. That’s why I threw caution to the wind and went with the 1st in hurdles.