Colorado hurricane forecaster predicts 7 Atlantic hurricanes in 2008 (three of them majors)

ap on San Diego Union - Tribune ^ | 12/7/07 | AP

[the invisib1e hand]

I hate to be cliche but...Bush's fault!

[CindyDawg]

Why do they need to predict anything? 7 storms or 70. It only takes one.

[dalereed]

That idiot should try forcasting something else, he’s a failure at huricanes.

[Gay State Conservative]

First let’s see if he can forecast Monday’s weather in Cleveland.

[irishtenor]

I’m predicting rain in Seattle, sunshine in Miami, and ice in Buffalo. ( I bet I get 100%)

[Chode]

MAKE IT STOP!!!

[Mark]

I’d respect him more if he put down a LARGE bet with someone. Follow the money.

[Cobra64]

“The Weather Guy” on all the TV stations can’t forecast tomorrow’s weather. How can “The Hurricane Guy” predict the number of storms many months out? /sarcasm

[jiggyboy]

The problem here, as with virtually all broadly published predictions, is that there is no indication of the probability that it is correct. It would be much more useful if he said something like “30% probability of 3 big hurricanes, 20% probability of 2 hurricanes, 20% probability of 4 hurricanes”, etc.

[fhayek]

Hurricanes next year in the Caribbean during hurricane season. The guy is uncanny!

[sig226]

“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” Gray said.

Who needs reality, anyway?

[yield 2 the right]

I predict whatever happens in the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane will happen and if you live in a hurricane zone always buy and keep in stock your supplies in advance and keep your insurance(if you find one) up to date and make sure that it covers what you need it to....but you probably already knew that...

[dufekin]

Those active “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” cycles last for decades but include several inactive seasons, and 2006 and 2007 were “fairly inactive” only by the standards of the active phase of the multidecadal cycle but unusually severe by the standards of the inactive phase.

[Stevenc131]

A stopped clock is right twice a day. I he and his team keep coming up with numbers, eventually they’ll hit it.

[BurbankKarl]

And I predict Christmas will be on the 25th of December!

[JustaDumbBlonde]

What you are failing to understand is that Mother Nature got it wrong and Gray was correct all along. Is there any other business where we would be looking (with a straight face) to the same guy for next year that was totally wrong last year? Dick Morris doesn’t count! ;-)

[Chode]

Where Da Hurricanes at???

[SampleMan]

The problem here, as with virtually all broadly published predictions, is that there is no indication of the probability that it is correct. It would be much more useful if he said something like “30% probability of 3 big hurricanes, 20% probability of 2 hurricanes, 20% probability of 4 hurricanes”, etc.

I say there will be nine named storms, three majors, and one landfall in the U.S. with a 5% chance of error. If I'm wrong, then it is the 5%.

[SouthTexas]

bump