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Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
We could only hope. Hurricane Dean in 2004 dissapated to Liberal Depression after the scream.
Too bad Hurricane Dean won't follow suit.
Ouch. 946???
I never said it wasn’t going to be a cat 5. I’m looking at the projected tracks of NHC and Weather Underground. Everyone keeps flipping at the GFDL. Now we’ve got a leftward shift of the HWRF and especially the GFDL. Which is saying Mexico.
Well, it’s not Gilbert! Altho - I think Gilbert’s record 888 mb came very quickly after its 940 or so mb the same day.
PaMom
I wish we were dry, we’re completely saturated at the I-45/W Mt. Houston area. I drove over Greens Bayou and it’s near full.
We’re pretty dry over here. Didn’t get near the rain in far west harris county yesterday.
Damn, but he’s spinning quick.
one thing for sure it’s not going to be good for someone somewhere
Hurricane Dean Public Advisory Number 19A
Statement as of 8:00 PM AST on August 17, 2007
...Corrected maximum wind speed to 135 mph... ...Dean reaches category four strength as its center passes south of the Virgin Islands... At 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane Warning along portions of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border...and a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo engano westward to Barahona. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe and its dependencies. This warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the following islands of the Lesser Antilles...Montserrat...Antigua...Nevis...St Kitts...Barbuda...and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The warning will likely be discontinued later tonight. A Tropical Storm Warning also remains in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Watch is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area... generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of southeastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean...including western Cuba...the Cayman Islands...and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 800 PM AST...0000z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 14.9 north...longitude 65.1 west or about 800 miles... 1290 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 255 miles... 410 km...south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico. Dean is moving toward the west near 19 mph...31 km/hr. This motion is expected to continue through Saturday with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of the hurricane will be moving well south of Puerto Rico tonight. Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to at least 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is now a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles...295 km. The minimum central pressure just reported by the aircraft was 946 mb...27.93 inches. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from Dean over Puerto Rico...the Dominican Republic and Haiti with maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 800 PM AST position...14.9 N...65.1 W. Movement toward...west near 19 mph. Maximum sustained winds...135 mph. Minimum central pressure...946 mb. The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Knabb
We’ve had three storms today in my part of SW Hou. LOL, the TV met pointed to Bellaire once this aft and called it Bellville. He’s just all hyped up about Dean.
They usually ignore any storms in this area on two of the stations, because it’s where they’re located and it would be “showing favoritism”. So they go on and on about stuff way north of the city, while I’m wondering why I’m having brownouts, lol.
Anyway, I heard one of the emergency flood guys say yesterday that our ground before the Erin rains was 70% saturated - that was the first numerical value I had heard put on it.
Nobody is spared when posting all caps--especially when the link to the standard sentence case advisory is at the top of the thread.
;o)
I hate when the all caps is posted...way to hard to read.
We weren't supposed to see 120 knots until tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully Dean will run out of steam quickly.
Dean does everything faster than expected. The bionic storm.
Prayers and condolences, trillabodilla.
So, the GFDL did revise leftward, as our local met said. But not to Mexico. Nopey nope, just our back door and leaving us very dirty. Ugh.
Well, my grass was on the verge of browning...It was time to water it. I also saw some shrubs in a shopping center out here...and all the leaves were showing a great need for a large long drink.
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