You Cook So Good!!...LOL;0)
| This thread has been locked, it will not receive new replies. |
|
Locked on 08/19/2007 5:43:08 AM PDT by Lead Moderator, reason:
New thread here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1883326/posts?page=1 |
Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
Public Advisories Updated every three hours.
Tropical Storm Discussion Updated every six hours
Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks
Buoy Data East Caribbean
Buoy Data West Caribbean
Storm Surge graphic
Satellite Images
Additional Resources:
Central Florida Hurricane Center
Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Both Dvorak and Water Vapor show the “back-side” getting
fat(sorry:0))which mite help to turn it more north,that said
I started a log when it was at LAT~16~~~LON~71(posted)and it has only moved 50 miles north while a general/straight-
edge plot puts the eye passing more to the south,,,JMHO...
marking my place
Statement as of 2:00 am AST on August 19, 2007
...Dean heading toward Jamaica...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to
Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 2 am AST...0600 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has changed the Hurricane Warning to a Tropical Storm Warning from
Barahona to the southern Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and has
discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from east of Cabo caucedo
to Cabo engano. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Cabo
caucedo westward to the southern Haiti-Dominican Republic border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for coast of Haiti north of
Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A
Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of eastern
Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of
Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of central
Cuba...for the provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...
Cienfuegos...Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 200 am AST...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.4 north...longitude 72.6 west or about 295 miles...
480 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 155 miles...
245 km...south of Port au Prince Haiti.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28
km/hr...and a west-northwestward or westward motion is expected
during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will pass just south of the southern coast of Haiti over
the next several hours and will be near Jamaica later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
An Air Force hurricane hunter plane recently measured a minimum
central pressure of 921 mb...27.20 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Hispaniola with maximum
totals of 10 inches. The remainder of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7
inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
Repeating the 200 am AST position...16.4 N...72.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure...921 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown
000
URNT12 KNHC 190540
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 19/05:11:00Z
B. 16 deg 19 min N
072 deg 20 min W
C. 700 mb 2409 m
D. 100 kt
E. 135 deg 018 nm
F. 225 deg 105 kt
G. 135 deg 012 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 8 C/ 3046 m
J. 16 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C23
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0704A DEAN OB 33
MAX FL WIND 130 KT NE QUAD 05:16:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANTS E060/13/11
You Cook So Good!!...LOL;0)
bookmark
So, you’ll be opening Counter-Bubba’s CrowDaddy Shack soon?
For starters, un peu demitasse of crowbouillon ...
Then crowpetizers:
.Crowfish balls
.Crowsters on the Half-shell
.Creaux Livers en Brochette
Une petite salade des crowsfeet en aspic
Entrees:
.Crowbalaya
.Crowtouffée
.Crow Gumbeaux
.Cochon Remoulade a la Carencrow
.Filets des Creaux
Choice of pain:
.Crowssants
.More crowssants
Light supper:
.Cro’Boys
.Crowfullettas
.PopCrow Shrimp
Une dessert flambeaux:
.Whiskey Bread Pudding with Flaming Old Crow Sauce
.Crow-fly Pie
.Crowme Brulée
And an order of Morning Crow Beignets to take home!
BWAhahahaha,,,you tooo Baad!!...:0)
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 19, 2007
...Dean continues heading for Jamaica...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from west of the Haiti-dominican border to Port-au-Prince.
A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
At 5 am EDT....0900 UTC...the government of the Dominican Republic
has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Dominican
Republic.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the coast of Haiti north
of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also effect for portions of eastern
Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of
Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for portions of central
Cuba...for the provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...
Cienfuegos... Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 500 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.6 north...longitude 73.4 west or about 245 miles...
395 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 155 miles...
250 km...south-southwest of Port au Prince Haiti.
Dean is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph...30 km/hr...
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. On this track the core of the hurricane will pass just
south of the southwestern peninsula of Haiti during the next few
hours and will be near Jamaica later today.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb...27.20 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 7 to 9 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
possible near the center of Dean within the Hurricane Warning area.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to
8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are expected over the
Cayman Islands. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible over
southern Hispaniola with maximum totals of 10 inches. The
remainder of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4
inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7 inches. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Repeating the 500 am EDT position...16.6 N...73.4 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145
mph. Minimum central pressure...921 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 am EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
am EDT.
$$
Forecaster Pasch/Brown
Hurricane Dean Discussion Number 25
Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 19, 2007
The last penetration of the eye of the hurricane by the Air Force hurricane hunters was at 0511 UTC. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 921 mb by dropsonde and peak flight-level winds of 130 kt outbound in the northeast quadrant.
Satellite imagery shows a less distinct eye with some warming of the surrounding cloud tops...although the cloud pattern remains very impressive with good symmetry and strong outflow over all quadrants.
The initial intensity estimate is kept at 125 kt for this advisory...which may be a little on the high side.
If indeed Dean has weakened...this is likely the result of inner core processes...and is probably only a short-term change. The large-scale atmospheric and oceanic environment still appear to be very favorable for strengthening...
so....aside from inner-core-related fluctuations...Dean has the potential to attain category five hurricane status over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This is supported by the GFDL...SHIPS...lgem...and fsse guidance.
Interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will cause weakening...and the amount of re-strengthening of Dean over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico depends mainly on how long the system stays over water before making its final landfall.
Aside from the trochoidal wobbles that are common with such intense hurricanes...the motion has been between west and west-northwest over the past 12-24 hours. Initial motion estimate is 285/16.
As the mid- to upper-level cyclone over the eastern Gulf of Mexico continues to shift westward ahead of Dean...the future track of the hurricane will be controlled largely by a deep-layer high pressure system that is forecast to build over the southeastern United States.
The track guidance is in good agreement on a continued west-northwestward motion throughout the forecast period. Any changes from the previous official track forecast during the first 48 hours or so should be considered cosmetic. We have shifted the official forecast track slightly southward in the latter part of the period...but not as far south as shown by the GFS...U.K. Met. And ECMWF models.
It is imperative not to focus on the exact forecast track. Considering the margin of error of NHC predictions...the core of this large hurricane could easily be 30-50 N mi on either side of the forecast track during the next 12 hours or so.
Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to make a position and intensity fix on Dean around 1200 UTC.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 19/0900z 16.6n 73.4w 125 kt
12hr VT 19/1800z 17.1n 76.0w 130 kt
24hr VT 20/0600z 17.9n 79.5w 130 kt
36hr VT 20/1800z 18.7n 83.0w 135 kt
48hr VT 21/0600z 19.5n 86.6w 140 kt
72hr VT 22/0600z 21.0n 93.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 23/0600z 22.5n 99.0w 50 kt...inland
120hr VT 24/0600z 23.5n 103.0w 25 kt...inland
$$
forecaster Pasch/Brown
” It is imperative not to focus on the exact forecast track. Considering the margin of error of NHC predictions...the core of this large hurricane could easily be 30-50 N mi on either side of the forecast track during the next 12 hours or so “
Boy, this report has more hedges than a British Formal Garden....
A 50nm shift in track at this point could move the cone of probability a couple of hundred miles by the time he gets into the gulf...
If it misses Yucatan, all bets are off......
Had been keeping an eye out for news of your dtr’s location and saw something just now that might be of interest (or not):
~~~~
[A post on this page of messages]
http://help.stormcarib.com/read.php?2,5653
” ... Re: Dominican Republic - North Island
Posted by: Carlos (IP Logged)
Date: August 19, 2007 05:39AM
All international flights comimg to or leaving from Santo Domingo (MDSD), Puerto Plata (MDPT), Santiago (MDST), Casa De Campo (MDLR) and Punta Cana (MDPC) airports in the Dominican Republic have being reprogramed today Sunday 19, both comercial and cargo.
AA flights 1901 and 423 to MIA are departing today Sunday, at 9:10am and 9:15am
Copa, Aeropostal and Ascerca canceled due to bad weather in the caribbean
Punta Cana (MDPC) is operating normally.
“Have a nice Domincan Vacations” ...”
~~~~~~
As things heat up today, you can check the page at stormcarib called “Pleas for Help” which are usually family members looking for other family members they haven’t heard from or been able to contact.
It’s often a good way to see what the latest happenings are in an area - in addition to the correspondents’ reports on the home page of stormcarib. There is often good and useful info. I’ve seen many, many people helped through this webpage over the years.
http://help.stormcarib.com/list.php?2
I’m sure people in Jamaica and especially the Caymans feel that way, today, at this point in the approach. *you’re in or you’re out of the money*
New thread going up shortly.
This hurricane is reminding me alot of Andrew. We all remember what it did to S. Florida. Jamaicans are going to need our prayers.
Good morning, NN....
That reminds me - I saw another resource for Jamaica, from their office of preparedness - an excerpt:
~~~~
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/docDRQlRzx1iZ.doc
” ... In the aftermath of Hurricane Dean, the Salvation Army and Seventh Day Adventist (SDA) Churches will be established as Registration Centres for affected persons and distribution centres for relief items.
The progress of Hurricane Dean will continue to be closely monitored by the Meteorological Service of Jamaica and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and updates will be released to the public as soon as new information has been gathered. ...”
~~~~~
This is something I copies from your link...
“if your roof should come off and if the house or building shows signs of breaking up get in the closet or the bathtub and pull the mattress over your body for protection”
....sounds pretty frightening.... Remember all those people who were trapped from the floods in attics during Katrina. That was terrible. After hearing those stories, I’d probably take an ax, saw, shovel, and God knows what else with me into the bathtub. Just in case I needed help digging myself out of the rubble.
sorry, ‘something I copied’. it’s still early,I need my coffee : )
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.