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Posted on 08/16/2007 4:43:17 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane warnings have been issued for Dominica and St. Lucia as Hurricane Dean races westward into the Caribbean Sea at 24mph. This motion should bring the center of Dean near the Lesser Antilles on Friday. The increased forward speed of the storm has lessened preparation time for Caribbean Islands in its path. Hurricane Dean has favorable conditions to develop into a major hurricane over the next several days.
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Hurricane City
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
I did, too. Prayers continue.
Also noted that one person died in the Dominican Republic this afternoon - too near the waves, dashed on the rocks.
For Cayman Islands news go to:
http://www.caycompass.com/
inner wall still present in some form, with fairly large outer eye.. could keep seeing the pressure drop down into the 900-910mb range as this ERC completes (been a long and slow one). Winds not yet responding but they should as well. Cat 5 by 5am..
I must be channeling glock rocks. He usually gets these even numbers on the NASCAR threads.
*raising hand* That would be me - thanks for thinking of me!
Yes, my heart goes out to all Jamaicans... they might not be able to fully recup for about 10 years from now... this is a catastrophic situation... their power & water might not come back up for the next 6 months or so...
Let’s see if the U.N. and international communities can step up to the plate here!
Our thoughts and prayers, Jamaica...
Me too!
Here’s a link to their official meteorological website,
11pm NHC track south again.. now skirts southern Jamaica and hits Yucatan south of Cozumel. second hit in mexico also south of earlier.
I’m thinking that, too. So much Gilbert in this Mean Dean!
*how low can he go?*
That does not bode well for Jamaica. LF is expected tomorrow afternoon.
I feel for you. I had that happen about three years ago, in Houston (is that where you are?) They’re supposed to consider it an emergency if the temp is over 90, but apparently they don’t. After about three days I was sort of permanently flushed from the heat and exhausted. Little box apartments with no cross ventilation are NOT suitable for existing without A/C.
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007
...Center of Dean passing just south of Hispaniola...heading toward Jamaica... At 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Jamaica. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours. At 11 PM AST...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch for portions of central Cuba...for the provinces of Ciego de Avila...Sancti Spiritus...Cienfuegos...Matanzas...and Isla de la Juventud. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the progress of Dean. For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office. At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 71.7 west or about 360 miles... 580 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 170 miles... 275 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti. Dean is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and a westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass just south of the southern coast of Haiti overnight and will be near Jamaica Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles...335 km. The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was 918 mb...27.11 inches. Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Hispaniola with maximum totals of 10 inches. The remainder of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7 inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...16.2 N...71.7 W. Movement toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure...918 mb. An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500 am AST. $$ Forecaster Knabb/Roberts
Hey there,,,TANKS for the links,,,It’s sure gunna be a mess...
Statement as of 11:00 PM AST on August 18, 2007
...Center of Dean passing just south of Hispaniola...heading toward
Jamaica...
At 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cayman Islands.
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona westward to the Haiti-Dominican
Republic border...and for the southwestern peninsula of Haiti from
the Haiti-Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince. A Hurricane
Warning is also in effect for Jamaica.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning is still in effect along the South
Coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo engano westward to
Barahona...and for coast of Haiti north of Port-au-Prince to the
northern Haiti-Dominican Republic border. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for portions of eastern Cuba...from the province
of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 11 PM AST...the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm
watch for portions of central Cuba...for the provinces of Ciego de
Avila...Sancti Spiritus...Cienfuegos...Matanzas...and Isla de la
Juventud. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.
Interests elsewhere in the western Caribbean...including
western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...should closely monitor the
progress of Dean.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
At 1100 PM AST...0300z...the center of Hurricane Dean was located
near latitude 16.2 north...longitude 71.7 west or about 360 miles...
580 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 170 miles...
275 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti.
Dean is moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr...and a
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected during the next
24 hours. On this track...the core of the hurricane will pass just
south of the southern coast of Haiti overnight and will be near
Jamaica Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Dean is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles...95 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205
miles...335 km.
The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft was 918 mb...27.11 inches.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches can be expected over
Jamaica...with maximum amounts of up to 20 inches. Amounts
of 4 to 6 inches are possible over southern Hispaniola with maximum
totals of 10 inches. The remainder of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba
could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain...with maximum amounts up to 7
inches. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mudslides.
Repeating the 1100 PM AST position...16.2 N...71.7 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph.
Minimum central pressure...918 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 am AST followed by the next complete advisory at 500
am AST.
$$
Forecaster Knabb/Roberts
If you have some time to kill, I think it's worth the wait.
Trends are somewhat better for them trackwise... of course, a cat 5 passing closeby is still going to be a major problem.
Still close enough to have the 180 deg wind shift. Once everything is bent over, it comes back from the other side and breaks it off.
Mite be takin’ a little touch back to the north,,,wobble?
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