Actually, I’ve see the blue-diode has fallen to $9 in bulk. A lot of companies have really gone all out, especially Sharp.
Now that the shortage is over and Sony has already lost over probably $300 million in the cost of the blue diodes they've already shipped in the PS3. The actual cost plus lost console sales due to high price, other loss leaders in the system and other PS3 factors caused Sony's game division to run an almost $2 billion deficit last year. That is a LOT of loss leader to get something to market, just as Toshiba is doing with HD-DVD.
BTW, the now-cheaper diode probably means a PS3 price cut this year, although the cheaper system will make it harder for Sony to recoup its loss.