In a freaky twist, the free software fundamentalist PJ at Groklaw has a possible different take on the Novell deal, that it could actually keep Microsoft from making patent claims against any Linux distributor or user, not just Novell and theirs. Is Novell actually that smart? Hard to think they are given their history.
It's possible. History is a good indicator of what the future is going to look like, but nothing is certain until it actually happens.