Really difficult to pick one airframe out of the many on offer for both operational & political factors.The political factor has become magnified over the past 2 years.In 2001,people would have scoffed if anyone said India would purchased an aircraft other than the French Mirage-2005 with only the Mig-29M for distant competition.Now the Mirage-2005 is all but dead & the American airframes & new Russian Mig-35 seem to big contenders.
A lot of people say that this deal will be enhanced to provide 180 odd aircraft so that 2 aircraft can be selected.It makes sense to buy an American jet so that GWB can be been to be vindicated for the trust he seems to have put into relations with India with the nuclear deal & all.The Russians would need their pound of flesh as well but selecting the Mig-35 would also cause the least logistical problems given that India already uses the Mig-29s.
About France being an unreliable ally & the US solid,well India's experiences suggest the opposite.The US still sells fighters & heavy duty stuff to Pakistan(which can't buy French stuff due the cost!!!).The French have been India's biggest arms suppliers outside of Russia & Israel & are rather liberal on technology & industrial partnerships.But my uneducated guess is that the European offerings will not have much of a chance for this contract as they are not really making a big pitch & the Indian defense budget is big enough to accomodate them elsewhere!!
The Russians have been a reliable supplier to India, and they may stick with them. Since they are trying to build defense relations with the US, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few orders come this direction.