"The problem is that if something like this would cost Alabama 20 scholarships and a threat of the death penalty."
Since this is $30 grand over what Alabama got busted for they should get whollped. But they won't. You are right about the subjective and, well, arbitrary punishments.
This is how it will play out..
NCAA: "Trojans, this looks bad"
USC: "We didn't know - we can't watch the kids 24 hours a day"
NCAA: "Oh ok, makes sense - case closed.