vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
Ohio State needs to go to man to man -- but I don't know if they have the team speed to do that. Florida Spread with 4-5 recievers every play will have someone open in that 5-10 yd zone all night.
Your not going back far enough, they always make it close in the end.
Right now, I'm not sure that was greatly exaggerated. The Gators' offense is still eating up the Buckeye defense.
OSU got humbled when the score got to 21-7. Now they know they have a real opponent. No one is going to just hand them the trophy. They'll have to earn it, if they can.
This game could well go to the last possession.
Florida hasn't been losing games, but they have not been "finishers" the last couple seasons. They tend to get out quick, build a 10-20 pt lead, and then hold on. In the end it looks like an ugly 23-20, 21-14, etc win -- when the reality is it was 21-0 or 23-3 early on.
No need to go back any further. Meyer is a good coach. He knows how to play the game. He learned much under Earle Bruce's leadership.
-PJ
OSU defense may have settled down.
Florida is not showing as much intensity now. This is where Meyer has got to get them to suck it up and pour it on. If they coast, the wounded Buckeye team is going to come back hard and the game will be tied by halftime.
Heck, that's always been true. Florida girls can be very stunning with their sweet suntans!
Prediction: OSU will tie it on the next drive.
OSU finally steps up and gets a stop.
A bonehead personal foul changed things and gave OSU 15 yards and new life.
Meyer is HUGE on finishing. When he was at Utah his insistence on top-notch conditioning for a full four quarter game was legendary.
Tennessee was ahead 20-0 and Florida came back and beat Tennessee 21-20. Florida can come back.
Now UF has to adjust to OSU's adjustments, they're getting more pressure on Leak now.
Florida is playing right to thier script. They do it almost every week. Jump out to a quick lead, and then start coasting, and let the other team get back into the game and make it interesting.
That may be the case. But this season the game have been too close in the end. But, a win is a win.
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