vs. 
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
Posted on 01/03/2007 3:06:17 PM PST by MikefromOhio
vs.
Florida vs Ohio State (-7)
The BCS National Title game is being played in Glendale, Arizona and features the BCS #1 team and Big Ten conference champion Ohio State Buckeyes vs. the BCS #2 and SEC Conference champion Florida Gators.
Being that this is the National Title game as we know it, I’ll break it down by groups. Feel free to disagree if you like, but I’ll do my level best to keep it even here.
This is one of 3 critical match-ups in the game. The Ohio State offensive line is probably one of the best at the school in a decade. The Florida defensive line is renowned for stopping the run, but sometimes struggles to generate a pass rush. This is key as Troy Smith has proven that if, given time to throw, he will be able to connect. The key here is can Florida get a pass rush up the field and whether or not Ohio State can run the ball.
Advantage: Even
Not quite as key as the previous group. Ohio State can throw the ball on just about anyone and this will be the best passing game Florida has faced all year long. We will find out if Florida can cover 4 wide receivers as this is one of Ohio State’s base sets. On the flip side, while Michigan may be statistically the best rush defense, Florida has the better linebackers. Another key assignment for this back 7 of Florida is the containment of a running QB. Troy Smith has made it a point of emphasis that he is NOT a running Quarterback anymore, but I am of the opinion that he can and will make it a point to run at least 3 times in the first couple series of the game.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
This part of the match up favors Ohio State by a rather large margin, especially in the kicking game. Ohio State has one of the most dangerous return games in the nation, with Ted Ginn returning both punts and kicks. Florida’s FG kicking has been atrocious all year long. If this can even out, the game will be much closer. If one side or the other can turn this part of the game into an advantage, then so much the better for their team.
Advantage: Ohio State
This is another part of the game that should favor Ohio State, but not by very much. If Ohio State is able to generate a pass rush on Chris Leak, this will force him to make throws under pressure, something he sometimes has issue with. Another thing that is key in this game, Ohio State must get off the blocks of the Florida offensive line to be effective in the run game. If the Florida offensive line is able to contain the Ohio State defensive line, then the Ohio State linebackers will need to come up and make plays, opening them up to reverses, end-arounds and the pass.
Advantage: Ohio State by a slim margin
Ohio State’s defense has forced some key turnovers all year long. Florida is one of the few teams in college football that matches up well in terms of personnel. I think Florida has enough talent and speed to keep this one interesting. It comes down to what I’ve described above, the Ohio State defensive line and if Chris Leak can make the throws to his players so they can make plays. If Chris Leak gets time, Florida should be just fine here.
Advantage: Florida
Troy Smith won the Heisman Trophy. Chris Leak led his team through arguably the toughest conference in the nation this year. Both are good QBs in their own right, but Troy Smith has the offense built around his skills while Chris Leak is a bit of a square peg in a round hole for the Urban Meyer offense. The Florida offense is geared more towards Tim Tebow, who is the wild card here, than someone of Chris Leak’s skill set. Leak might be more accurate on the hole, but Troy Smith has more depth to throw too. If Troy Smith is able to take over this game, it might be a long night for Florida.
Advantage: Ohio State
Some will say that Urban Meyer is playing with Ron Zook’s players, but given the nature of college football, that isn’t a fair analysis. Zook wasn’t able to win the SEC with these players, but Meyer did it in year 2. That should speak volumes. Oddly enough, Jim Tressel won a national title in his 2nd year at Ohio State with John Cooper’s players. Jim Tressel is 2nd only to Pete Carroll when it comes to big games. This will be a big test for Urban Meyer who is no stranger to the BCS himself (UTAH). There is a slight advantage here for Ohio State, being that it’s in Arizona (they’ve won 3 of the last 4 Fiesta Bowls, the other being the year Utah smoked Pitt), they expected to be here as early as last year. Meyer gets to play the “everyone is against us” card.
Advantage: Slight advantage to Ohio State
They don’t (or at least shouldn’t) take the field, but the crowd can be a factor in the game. In the 2002 Fiesta Bowl, Ohio State got their fans to pack that stadium, while Miami fans were pretty scarce except in a few sections. One thing I have an issue with, Ohio State fans had a full 2 weeks to get tickets before Florida had even qualified for the BCS National Title game. Expect a majority Ohio State crowd, but Florida will represent better than Miami did in 2002.
This could be a very good game. Or then again it might be a very lopsided game. I personally think that it will be close. Florida has played in hostile environs all year long in the SEC and no other conference can fully duplicate that. To win this game, Florida will need to score at least 30 points while holding down the Ohio State offense. For Ohio State, it’s about establishing their rhythm again and being the juggernaut that averaged 40 points a game their final 5 games of the year. Another thing Florida has, if you believe in streaks, is that Ohio State is 0-7 all-time against the SEC in bowl games and Troy Smith won the Heisman. Most Heisman Winning Quarterbacks have bad bowl games after getting the trophy.
For the fun of it, I have simulated this game on my PS2 using NCAA 2007 made by EA Sports. I’ve played both sides and I’ve let the computer play it as well. Kind of fun to speculate about, but each time the team that won the turnover battle won the game. Ohio State won it two times and Florida won it once. In real life, the turnover battle is important to the outcome as well. IF Chris Leak is able to avoid the bad throws, Florida has a real shot. If he throws a pick or two, Florida is in deep trouble.
My prediction: Ohio State 34 – Florida 27
what's the record for quickest Heisman bust ?
Florid is surprising a LOT of people tonight!
4th time tonight the OSU qb got sacked!
Ron Zook had better be invited to the party, that's all I can say.
Yes, the runback should have been called back. Without those seven points, the OSU offense would REALLY look bad.
--but he let close to 5 minutes melt off that clock in the third quarter.--
Trying to keep the score down (Less time for FL offense).
They beat LSU, I think by a point, in Columbus in the late '80s..
If Woody Hayes were here, he would have slugged a Florida kid on the sideline by now.
The Buckeyes are going backwards. Now they have 76 yards total offense.
No they haven't. The Gators have typically finished strong in the fourth, after letting opponents back into the game in the third. <>p>The Buckeyes have no answer for the Gator defense. No one came close to laying a hand on Moss on that last sack. He just had a free crack at Troy Smith.
1963 Rose Bowl: USC 42, Wisconsin 37
Jan. 1, 1963
Pasadena, Calif. -- A 23-point fourth quarter explosion wasn't quite enough as the Badgers dropped a 42-37 Rose Bowl encounter to Souther Cal.
1963 Rose Bowl
Photo/AP
USC's Hal Bedsole scores on a 57-yard pass play for a 27-7 lead. Bedsole was pursued by Gary Kroner (47) and Larry Howard (81).
USC 42, Wisconsin 37
Team Statistics UW USC
First downs 32 15
Rushing yards 28-67 41-114
Passes 34-49-3 10-20-0
Passing yards 419 253
Total offense 486 367
Punts-avg 4-40 5-40
Fumbles-lost 6-0 2-1
Penalties-yards 7-77 12-93
Wisconsin 0 7 7 23 37
USC 7 14 14 7 42
Rushing -- W: Holland 4-27, Kurek 11-26, USC: Wilson 17-57. Passing -- W: Vander Kelen 33-48-3-401, USC: Beathard 8-12-0-190. Receiving -- W: Richter 11-163, Holland 8-72, Kroner 5-64, USC: Bedsole 4-101, Brown 3-108.
The Trojans had claimed a 42-14 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter before the huge Badger comeback.
USC had a 21-7 halftime lead and extended it on the first play of the first stanza, before Ron Vander Kelen led one of the biggest charges in bowl history.
Vander Kelen reached paydirt on a 17-yard scamper to reduce the margin to 28-14.
USC responded with a pair of touchdown passes by Pete Beathard and the Trojans led 42-14.
Lou Holland (13-yard run) and Gary Kroner (4-yard reception) tallied for the Badgers within three minutes.
A bad center snap on a punt resulted in a UW safety.
After the free kick, Vander Kelen hit three straight passes, including a 19-yard score to Pat Richter for the final 42-37 margin.
Vander Kelen, the game MVP, set both Wisconsin and Rose Bowl records with 401 yards passing.
Richter caught 11 of those aerials for 163 yards.
The 79 total points scored was a Rose Bowl record that stood for 28 years.
I'd toss in Arkansas also.
Although the Trojans have it to loose in 2007
Boise State deserves to be #2. I know they won't be but they deserve to be.
Leak should have slid and stayed inbounds.
I'm just shakin my head...Florida is smokin!!
Was that Chris Leak just running all over the field ????? LOL
I'd say that record is still held by Gino Torretta from '92. ;)
Agreed. The Trojans are always a great team. Can never write them off.
Arkansas with McFadden will be a potent threat for the enxt couple of years at least.
Les isn't popular in Stillwater. Saban isn't the only back stabber.
Boise State could not stay with this team.
For about a half, maybe into the third quarter, on talent and pluck alone. The Handbags are a phenomenal club. They remind me of the fast Miami teams.
Boise State is a good team. The Fiesta Bowl victory will help their recruiting. They should become the Next Miami-an unexpected national power out of Nowhere. But to be consistently good, they would have to go out and play quality opponents year after year like Miami did when they were independent. You have to play the Good to get Good, because that's how people notice you. Plus, if you want the good kids to come to you from California, FL, TX, PA, and other great football states, you have to be able to show that the NFL recruits from your school.
Right now, in the WAC, they don't play quality teams like Florida does, week in and week out. Even Miami, in a weakend ACC, has to play a tougher schedule.
Boise State's advantage is that, like Florida, it's a state school with an alumni base and access to goodies in the Idaho State legislature. Believe me, after the Fiesta Bowl, the alums are going to open the floodgates.
It will take some time and some recruiting, but in two to three years, Boise State will actually be able to compete for the natioanal championship.
That last sack was emblematic of this whole game.
Be Seeing You,
Chris
-PJ
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.