 The Airbus A350XWB industrial launch without any firm orders suggests airlines are still evaluating whether the airframer can deliver what it's promising and that a difficult sales job could lie ahead. After deliberating over program-affordability concerns, EADS (Airbus's parent) gave the go-ahead to the first three of five planned A350 versions covering a 250-375-seat capacity and range of roughly 8,300-8,500 naut. mi. The aircraft are designed to rival segments of both the Boeing 777 and 787 families. Scott Carson, president/CEO of Boeing's Commercial Airplanes, says: "I don't think you can span the whole spectrum of what we have done with [the 777 and 787], unless they've invented some new physics." But he does welcome the Airbus product launch, noting that it takes ambiguity out of the market--some customers have been holding off on orders while Airbus defines its product. Much work remains on the Airbus A350XWB agenda, besides finalizing the detailed design of the twin-engine, wide-body transport in the wake of the program's formal launch. Topping the list are production site decisions, finding out what A350 customers will commit to the redesign, and determining the long-term financing for the ýýý10-billion ($13-billion) project. One of the biggest design changes since last summer's decision to use the larger, 232-in.-dia.-fuselage "XWB" version is the move to a largely composite structure. It has six big composite panels mounted on aluminum. Rolls-Royce, so far, is the sole engine provider, although Airbus wants to offer an option (see p. 38). Moreover, Airbus will outsource about half of the A350 to suppliers, partly to denominate contracts in dollars to provide a hedge against a decline in the U.S. currency. But suppliers also are to take on about ýýý1.8 billion in development costs, says Airbus CEO Louis Gallois. Chinese companies are being offered a 5% workshare, and EADS expects to renew its offer to Russia to take at least 3% (a previous offer had expired). EADS executives met with Russian aerospace industry leaders last week to discuss the partnership. EADS will also maintain its commitment to give South Korean industry a roughly 5% workshare. And other partners are likely to emerge in Europe--notably Italy, where Finmeccanica is seeking a role--and in the U.S. Airbus is in talks with 10 companies on becoming risk-sharing, top-tier suppliers. They would manage much of the rest of the supply chain. In choosing subcontractors, Airbus is scrutinizing both a company's competitiveness and its financial wherewithal, says Olivier Andres, vice president for strategy and cooperation. Potential partners include Safran, Latecoere, Saab, Fokker and GKN, as well as Spirit Aerospace, which is one of the main 787 suppliers. These decisions probably will be made in the spring, Andres adds, and the partners will be brought in 18 months earlier than usual to improve development processes. A critical factor in the fate of the A350 will be the outcome of the "Power8" cost-cutting program that EADS is implementing. Airbus and EADS are still devising the details of that strategy, which includes a potential realignment of Airbus's industrial structure. With that in mind, Gallois refused to disclose where A350 work will be located until early next year. He merely noted that all four Airbus countries--France, Germany, Spain and the U.K.--will get work. Toulouse is expected to remain the final assembly site, while the U.K. is likely to retain its wing production center. The industrial approach "will eventually have an effect on everything we do in the next decade," Gallois says. Plans take into account the emerging need for a next-generation single-aisle aircraft. John Leahy, chief operating officer for customers, says he expects the aircraft to enter service around 2015-16. For near-term financing, the company will largely draw on cash reserves. Options to raise additional money include selling industrial sites, approaching capital markets or pursuing a capital increase. EADS Co-CEO Tom Enders says the company would consider selling a share of Airbus to United Arab Emirates investors, who have expressed an interest. Relations with the UAE are good, he notes, and their involvement in Airbus would not be viewed as burdensome. However, Airbus does not rule out having to resort to government financial assistance. But for now, the company is avoiding that topic while the issue of aircraft subsidies is litigated at the World Trade Organization. Although Airbus has 100 commitments for the previous A350, what's unclear is which customers will remain with the program. "We will lose some," says Leahy, but he expects many to convert to the XWB. Airlines will be asked to pay more, but exactly how much will be negotiated individually. The nominal A350 list price is around $215 million, about $40 million more than the earlier model. GE Commercial Aviation Service (Gecas) is one company likely to drop its A350 order unless Airbus can bring the GEnx powerplant into the program. So far, Singapore Airlines and China Aviation Supplies Import and Export Group Corp. have committed to the A350XWB, and Finnair says it will confirm an order for nine. Key airlines to be at the center of future discussions include British Airways and Lufthansa (which have fleet replacement programs underway), Emirates and Air France. The delayed A350 launch also has prompted a resequencing of aircraft types from original plans. Airbus will first come out with the -900, rather than lead off with the -800. The decision was made because of the expected cycle in terms of airline purchase plans. Replacement of A340s, MD-11s and 777-200ERs should be headed for a big up-cycle around 2013, so the A350-900 targeted at that segment was prioritized, notes Leahy. The first wave of replacements in the A350-800 segment will already have passed, so Airbus opted to bring out that type a year later. Meanwhile, Leahy sees one bright spot in the delay--potentially avoiding an order lull. The timing of the next airline order downturn appears to have shifted to around 2011 from 2009, he says. If that's the case, Airbus would start delivering the A350 into an up-cycle, while Boeing's 787 would be delivering into a trough. "I find that very convenient," Leahy adds. Design freeze for the A350-900 is planned for late 2008, with a first flight likely around 2012. The earlier A350 underwent several iterations, and the current configuration also is likely to be tweaked. But Tom Williams, Airbus executive vice president for programs, does not foresee major changes in the coming months--and nothing on the scale of what earlier iterations of the design went through. The large composite panel pairs--measuring 13 meters (42.6 ft.), 18 meters (59 ft.) and 16 meters (52.5 ft.) in length, respectively--are the aircraft's central feature. The shell concept allows a higher optimization of the thickness and composite layup, Williams says. The weight of the structure is about the same as a single-barrel concept might be, he suggests, referring to the Boeing 787 approach. The lateral joints that hold the sections together are relatively lightly loaded, so they don't have to be large and heavy. Airbus believes it will be able to build an aircraft 14% lighter per seat than the 787 using this approach. Manufacturing the panels will be easier than producing a single-barrel composite fuselage, as Boeing is doing, Williams says. EADS has the composites expertise to build the structures, but he asserts that this is clearly an area where Boeing has benefited from government aid. Airbus argues that the NASA Advanced Composites Technology program was critical to allow Boeing to mature the process for large composite fuselage structures, which have allowed it to pursue a single-barrel design. The panel approach also has advantages: Airbus will be able to split the work among suppliers. That strategy should spur competition among them and thereby keep prices under control while sparking process innovations. Maintenance of the sections should also be easier in case of ramp damage, although Williams says that doesn't mean entire sections would be replaced. Instead, patching of damaged areas will likely be the approach used. The wing will have a 35-deg. sweep, which is 3 deg. greater than earlier designs. Wingspan will be 64 meters, with 20% more wing area (442 sq. meters). On the materials split, the latest A350 iteration has 52% composites, up from less than 40% on earlier versions, with aluminum and aluminum-lithium making up 20%, titanium 14% and steel 7%. "We've never taken a dogmatic view of the material use on the airframe," Williams says. Composites mainly will be for the wing, fuselage, belly fairing, and vertical and horizontal tail planes. Aluminum is featured heavily in floor beams, structures and assemblies, while titanium is being used in the landing gear, pylons and attachments. Airbus will also opt for a more modest production ramp-up than its rival. While Boeing will try to produce more than 100 787s in the first two years, Airbus has set a goal of about half that. Leahy says the aircraft is also designed to rival the 777-300ER, and he downplays the Boeing aircraft's fuselage-diameter size advantage. He argues that the A350 will have more comfortable seating and, by virtue of a newer design, beat the 777-300ER's per-seat fuel consumption by 20%. Boeing officials have acknowledged they may adjust their own product offering once Airbus's plans crystallize. Overall, Airbus sees a demand for roughly 5,700 A350-type aircraft. These represent about 41% of the value of airliners to be sold in the next 20 years. Although Airbus has two other members in the A350 family--a freighter and long-range version--managers would have to ask the corporate board to OK the program launch of those models. With Jens Flottau in Munich and Joseph C. Anselmo in New York. AIRBUS A350XWB SPECIFICATIONS
|
|
A350-800 |
A350-900 |
A350-1000 |
| In-Service Date |
mid-2014 |
mid-2013 |
mid-2015 |
| Seating |
270 |
314 |
350 |
| Range |
8,500 n.m. |
8,300 n.m. |
8,300 n.m. |
| Engine thrust |
75,000 lb. |
87,000 lb. |
95,000 lb. |
| Cruise speed |
Mach 0.85 |
Mach 0.85 |
Mach 0.85 |
| MTOW |
245 metric tons |
265 metric tons |
295 metric tons |
Source: Airbus |
